Dear Editor,
I have read the Low Carbon Development Strategy on GINA’s website and read the text of the presentation at the Conference Centre. The document is beautifully written with numerous fancy graphs. It is a magnificent masquerade of fiction. The President’s speech is as usual, full of hype and promise, empty on fact, empty on vision. It is a three-card monte game with Norway as the captive bettor. I do not speak Norwegian, but most of us are aware of the Latin words ‘caveat emptor,’ or buyer beware.
The document makes the following proposition to Norway and the developed world:
Pay the Guyana government US$580M per year and it will ensure that none of Guyana’s 15 million hectare rainforest will be disturbed, because if we were to disturb this pristine forest suitable for timber extraction, post-harvest agriculture and significant mineral deposits then the deforestation that would accompany this development path would reduce the critical environmental services that Guyana’s forests would provide to the world, such as biodiversity, water regulation and carbon sequestration. Conservative valuations of the economic value to the world suggest that left standing, the forest can contribute US$40B to the global economy every year.
First the misrepresentations. On page 6 of the document, the following statements are made:
“Guyana has experienced positive growth in almost every year over the past two decades –growth rates in 2006, 2007 and 2008 were 5.1%, 5.8% and 3.1% respectively (growth in 2008 was 5.9% if sugar was excluded).”
From the World Bank website, the following information is available in Guyana’s Country Report. Note well, the past two decades will cover from 1989 to 2008: “1991-97 marked a period of impressive economic performance in Guyana. Rooted in a comprehensive program of market-oriented reforms and liberalization, average growth reached 7 percent and inflation declined rapidly to single digits, while fiscal and external imbalances were drastically reduced. But by 1998, the initial gains of reform and stabilization seemed exhausted. The economy was also plagued by weak private sector activity, “brain drain,” sizeable fiscal and external imbalances, and setbacks in structural reforms. While financial stability was broadly maintained, growth averaged a meagre ¼ percent from 1998 to 2005.”
Enough said. The reason the government is peddling these falsities is in its argument, namely, Guyana is growing rapidly; Guyana has great management and stewardship of its economy; Guyana is ready for explosive growth and this will cause deforestation to the detriment of the world. Hence pay us to not go do this explosive growth in our economy so that we can fight global warming and climate change.
On page 5 of this dream document, the following can be found: “Guyana has transitioned to a multi-party democracy.”
What are the facts? Guyana is a divided nation and a one-party state where the opposition cannot even change a comma in the national budget. Where is this fictitious multiparty democracy the government is taking about? Surely the Norwegians would have read the McDougall Report. Surely, the Caribbean and the world know Guyana is in reality an elected dictatorship. Surely the world knows about torture, extra-judicial killings here. Guyana is a lawless society nurtured by executive lawlessness.
On page 7 of the document, there is the statement concerning “a young, educated and English speaking workforce.” Can anyone believe this statement? We have one of the highest levels of illiteracy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Eighty-three per cent of out tertiary graduates migrate and English is a foreign language to most Guyanese at home.
The truth is well known. Guyana does not have the development framework, educated workforce, investment capital, non-monetary resources, technology, management or visionary government to grow 6 % per year, much less the 15-20 % growth rate necessary in our rainforests to really make an impact through deforestation on the global climate change architecture. The reality is that without being given a single cent, Guyana’s rainforests will remain what they are today and what they were 50 years ago for the next 50 years. Why would Norway or any other country give Guyana billions for something they will enjoy free anyhow?
The reality is different. Since 1970, Brazil has lost 232,000 square miles of Amazon rainforest. Guyana’s total size is 83,000 square miles or 1/3 of Brazil’s loss since the 1970s. Brazil is 3,287,597 square miles. Venezuela is 353,841 square miles. Guyana has 15 million hectares or 150,000 square kilometres of rainforest (1 sq kilometre equals 100 hectares). Brazil loses rainforest because of several reasons: land clearage for huge cattle farms, poor subsistence cultivators, commercial exploitation of forest resources, commercial farming and inappropriate government policies.
This plan will allow 80% of our country to be out of our control. Our sovereignty will be compromised. The Amerindian community, which is left out of this strategy but can join at their own will, has 14% of Guyana. This implies over 90% of our land and most of our water will be unavailable for national development. This implies that less than 10% of Guyana will be available for most Guyanese to live and earn a living. Much of this land is below sea level and with climate change, the disaster awaiting the East Coast will be upon us. Strangely, this report is conspicuously silent on moving the capital inland, a reality even the blind can see.
Moreso, there is a global food shortage that will only worsen with climate change. Guyana has the potential to meet some of these massive needs. Food production to meet the world’s needs would imply some type of deforestation. Is this trade-off appropriate? Food and employment versus begging for carbon credit funds? Instead of creating jobs, instilling national pride, reducing crime and promoting entrepreneurship and private initiative, this government wants to have a command and control communist economy where the private sector and other organizations are beholden to it for their survival. Is this the market-based economy the document boasts Guyana has achieved?
One of the key issues with Norway providing money to Guyana will be compliance. We have already seen the Guyana government and President Jagdeo at work in many different ways. The CLICO, NBS, NIS financial fiasco is slowly moving off the front pages, but the damage it has caused will rock Guyana for decades. Why would any country trust Guyana with funds for climate change? Don’t they know about the illegality with respect to the Consolidated Fund?
Guyana is a modern political tragedy. Now we are cementing our reputation as a country with tremendous resources and a modern economic tragedy. The government is bent on a new form of begging. From debt relief to HIV/AIDS begging, we are now promoting ‘climate change’ begging. We are again entrusting our total future to the whims and conditionalities of other nations. No longer will we be able to control or even plan our economic and therefore political destinies. It highlights the lack of vision and barren economic minds ruling us.
Guyana is blessed with abundant resources of water, land and oil, and an educated but expatriate workforce. Visionary leadership could make Guyana one of the most prosperous nations on earth. Instead we have a cock-eyed plan that enslaves Guyana to the whims of a few countries and a PPP government in power but out of office.
This plan is not even worth the paper it is written on. Let us get back to democratic governance and implement our National Development Strategy. Water is a scare resource and will become even scarcer with climate change. Food will become the most important element of global survival. And we are whistling in the dark with an ill-conceived and creative way of becoming the poster boy for global mendicancy.
This is truly a magnificent masquerade of alarming and dangerous consequences. Then again, the PPP have started their 2011 campaign armed now with Channel 28 and non-nationalist propagandists. Climate change has replaced drug smuggling and money laundering as our new development currency. Good Luck Norway. Good Luck Guyana.
Yours faithfully,
Eric Phillips
amen! amen! well said. I was beginning to wonder when someone would challenge this fairy tale plan.
Mr Rip Van Winkle needs to rise out of his slumber and be a leader for once.
The sustainable use of the forests will bring more money.
Jagdeo cannot run a cake shop. with all the potential this country has he still cannot maximize on them. he prefers to run around the globe belittling the country begging for money.
Lies, fake statistics and propaganda are what characterizes this government. they are a farse, a charade. they are comfortable with sounding good (to themselves) than being good. propaganda is an alternative for development!
just can’t wait for 2011 to come so we can say good bye to this complete waste!
Ditto to this letter. Would have written something like this myself, but did not have the time.
Mr. Phillips, I am on my way out so haven’t read your letter in its entirety but I see where you are heading. I believe you are on the right track.
The first thing that jumps out at me is the $580M/year payment to the Guyana government as opportunity cost for saving the forest. Now, a $580M annual payment will generate economic activity of $2.4B per year (conservative estimate, 4 X dollar invested). Guyana’s economy, including the parallel economy is approximately $2.5B.What these guys are saying is that if they utilize the forest the way they plan and without having to save it then Guyana’s GDP will grow 100% per annum. This has never happened in the history of the world and is practically impossible. No right thinking person will even entertain the thought of a 100% GDP growth rate
What bothers me is that Ashni Singh and Jagdeo can present these irrational numbers and embarrass themselves without fear to an average economist. Guyana has better brain power than this, man.
The idea of a low carbon developmental strategy is not a bad one. However, you cannot execute it the way the government is currently doing. So in this sense I agree fully with Eric Phillips. You need a portfolio of industrial policies based on taking Guyana away from fossil fuels. We all accept Guyana would be well off with hydroelectricity. But when the cost to build one is outlined it is running at around 50% of GDP. The latter means that when you add the cost of financing and consider the current demand for electricity in Guyana the unit price will be very for a massive hydro project – this will likely be a killer for future productive activities. Therefore, why not have a small one to provide electricity for a smelter for only region 10. Then upgrade the sugar industry for ethanol (an E10 to E20 policy will be great) and bagasse electricity (Mauritius rings out around 220 MW each year from bagasse; how come we can only get 10 MW from Skeldon?). Then why not have wind turbines and even cheap solar panels in the rural areas? If the PPP is indeed serious about a low carbon development strategy they will switch to renewable energy in the next 10 years and many jobs will be created in the process – rather than just throwing back and kicking out the feet and chilling out for cash to roll in from the REDD (which many commentators have noted could be a disappointment).
Eric Phillips raised some serious political economy questions as to how this cash will be shared. These are valid questions and they must be answered before we can start pulling this dankey-cart economy to a Corolla and Camry economy. I am not optimistic the cash will be shared equitably given the PPP’s democratic centralism and the current titivated 1980 Burnham Constitution.
Good letter, Eric has raised some very pertinent questions. Thomas, surely you could add some thoughts here…
Dr. Khemraj, I am sure you will agree that Guyana need to craft an appropriate industrialization policy with the aim of utalizing technology and appropriate technological choices. Compared to say Trinidad and Jamaica, Guyana is still pre-industrial. The worst that happened to this sector was the ERP which killed indeginous technological innovation and growth through policy incoherence. Trade and financial liberalization was not coherent with the export oriented policies and incentives aimed at the private sector led growth. The IMF/WB stabilization and structural adjustment programs are a “mishmash” of policy prescriptions which lacks policy coherence. I have always argues this from the position of macroeconomics and public policy. So the jive about macroeconomic stability is more a short term fix by manipulating and ‘cocking’ assumptions and numbers. What is needed are policies which will facilitate industrial modernization and enterprise development in an environment which have favourable political and legal, legal framework for industry, trade and commerce…..policy coherence and process management of policy application are tools lacking under the IMF/WB prescription and management. I forget a fair trading system, which is outside of the national jurisdiction. The point is that it is not that easy now…Guyana’s leadership has lost us some exciting opportunities for failing to build and develope an economic system from government which would have allowed for industrial, commercial and trade growth. John Weiss, my former professor, writing helps in analysing Guyana’s situation and policy needs.
Why isn’t this letter at the top of the heap? And I strongly concur with Eric’s take: “Climate change has replaced drug smuggling and money laundering as our new development currency.” But like drug smuggling and money laundering, this is also a gamble that can go either way. I hope WE can win, but I refuse to live in hope only to die in despair. I am angry that it took the PPP sixteen years to finally come up with an economic plan of salvation and when they did it is another gamble on top of the gamble they took in 1999 when they picked Jagdeo to run Guyana.
Well!..Well.. A very nice analysis which strikes at the heart of this clumsy slight of hand by the Executive branch. For a hot second, I was beginning to think that simple things like basic commonsense and street smarts were becoming such a scarcity that Guyana was at a point of no return. Alas… Eric!!..In your letter here, I see glimmers of hope that some folks are consciously paying attention to the fraud of the ruling executive.
Bannas, we don’t even have to be a genius to recognize that this Low Carbon Development strategy, which Jagdeo is proposing for national economic growth, is tantamount to putting “Lipstick on a Pig” and a very wild ugly pig at that.
Extracted: and I trust it’s one of your originals, “Guyana is a lawless society nurtured by executive lawlessness.” Very true and accurate statement so let me add the way I feel about this disaster of a country ‘Guyana is home but it sure ain’t mine no more’.
I think, that the mistake of this Executive branch lies with the fact of diluting and confusing themselves about the way important national decisions are made and executed. And further, that Guyana is governed as a democracy while in essence every crucial decision points to the governance of a dictatorship with a singular perspective on everything. In Guyana the final arbitrator(decider) is Jagdeo period end of discussion.
However, in Norway like many other industrial countries, where a true democracy exist, the important decisions of state are made by many professional Public Service organizations working together and at numerous levels of Gov’t along with the private sector. Therefore it is difficult for some crazy hair brain or bone headed idea to survive commonsense scrutiny without challenge for so long. The validity and workability of this nonsensical strategy would’ve been exposed at the first stakeholders meeting just like you did in this letter. Then perhaps, a much more refined logical strategy would surface.
Extraction: “Why would Norway or any other country give Guyana billions(Euros) for something they will enjoy (and are already enjoying for) free anyhow?”… Bannas, you’re too pragmatic you’re asking too many tough questions, ya see dem PPP chaps are a bunch of communist ideologues dem get vex fuh blind loyalty….
Mr. Phillips, this is a well written analysis of the incompetent PPP’s attempt of economic planning for Guyana.
GOD SAVE GUYANA!
Evan Thomas,
I agree with everything you have said. The PPP has been conflating short-term stabilization with the long-term for many years. However, I hope there is still time to turn this lost ship around. We still have to try.
Yes there is a way to turn it around, send them packing come 2011.
like the development of the NDS which is somewhat dated…we need our best brains to create an economic strategy for guyana…we are sitting on hordes of resources but this government wouldn’t allow this type of inclusiveness even if it would benefit a large portion of thier support base…quite sad
Keep writing Dr. Kemraj, evan, t singh, cochore, andy ,soldier, cummings and dawne..we all have a role to play
Low Carbon strategy is jagdeo’s nonsense project to hopefully create some kind of legacy. Legacy of what i have no idea.
What is abundantly clear is that this man is a magnet to welfare, as guyanese would seh e like freeco.
Folks listen up this is not a made up observation look at it across the board, the VAT TAX? how can this govt justify the vat tax at 16 percent when they are busy paying 3000.00
USD a mth for rawbert persaud housing? he sold his own house to live on the tax payers back and he is not alone in the govt.
Look at GMC, GMC is a parking lot for ppp stooges to give dem wuk, ditto to all the other nonsense NGO’s and other crap they have all over the place. Why do you think they have not gotten rid of one of these BS organizations burnhame created?
Why do you think the government is the largest employer in the land? Now when you criticize them about that and point out it is a failure they run and holler oh if we fire these people where are they going to get work.
What idiots, how about opening up the economy and making it attractive for people to come here and do business? how about encouraging and supporting the few companies you do have here like unamco? how about ending the communist ownership of govt corporations and state media?
These people are so visionless folks it is not funny. I really hope people in Guyana can wake up and see this. The sad truth though is that a lot of Guyanese are supportive of this hideous behaviour that enriches the few in Guyana and that is a large reason why you will continue to see the poo poo poo get away with their visionless communist agenda.
SN how long this one is going to sit in limbo?