Bisram’s last poll was wrong about all three major parties

Dear Editor,

Christopher Ram exposed Vishnu Bisram by proving he got it wrong in seven out of the ten regions (3,4,6,7,8,9 and 10). Mr Bisram responded in a letter dated December 22, 2011. Mr Ram rightly attacked Mr Bisram’s margin of error of 6%. Mr Bisram’s last poll was done on November 25, 2011. His findings were released by the Guyana Chronicle on November 27, 2011 (‘Latest NACTA poll predicts landslide win for the PPP/C‘).  Mr Bisram used 2000 respondents in that last poll. Applied to a population of 760,000, this provides a margin of error of only approximately 2.2%! That is the true margin of error. Not his ridiculous 6%. Mr Bisram’s concocted 6% gives him more room to save face when exposed. Applying the correct margin of error of 2.2%, his last published poll was wrong with respect to the outcomes for all three major parties.

Mr Bisram was reported in the Guyana Chronicle (Nov 27) as stating: “NACTA said, given the undecided voters, soft support for AFC, and the margin of error, it is not impossible for PPP to get close to 60% and APNU to get close to 40% (though very unlikely).”  Mr Bisram was being statistically dishonest with his 60% prediction. He mentions undecided voters as a factor leading to a possible 60% win for the PPP. However, his last poll found 98% turnout. The contradiction between his findings and his reported claims is frightening to say the least. Given that Mr Bisram also missed the massive 31% non-turnout in 2006 despite his claim as a reputable and skilled pollster, I believe that he manipulates his findings on electoral turnouts or selectively publishes information. Which reputable pollster uses a 6% margin of error for a 98% turnout? Mr Bisram claims he polls on different voting dynamics and issues such as voting patterns among different racial groups, yet he never discloses this information. We know his samples are ethnically unbalanced. This selective statistical subterfuge and agenda objectification using statistics are common problems with this pollster. Mr Bisram said soft support for the AFC could have landed the PPP that 60% number.

This was in contravention of his own polls from July to November 27, 2011 which showed steady support for the AFC and in opposition to his own acknowledgement that Nagamootoo’s crossover to the AFC would benefit the AFC. Mr Bisram would do well to stop playing games and start polling the Guyanese people on issues such as governance, minority rule, constitutional change, etc.

Yours faithfully,
M Maxwell