There is a certain uneasiness if not fear about the increasing prominence and self-assurance about the rapid growth of the Chinese not only in Guyana but in the rest of the Caribbean and very particularly Africa. Books and articles on China are becoming an industry in itself. With its BRIC partner India, China shares the distinction of being one of two oldest surviving civilisations in the world. Top diplomat Henry Kissinger likes to quote Lucian Pye, the American political scientist that China is “a civilisation pretending to be a nation-state.” Indeed it even pretends to be a Third World country.
China’s uniqueness lies in its tradition of taking a long view of history although there is some question about the authenticity of the story that Zhou Enlai when asked what liberals should think of the French Revolution of 1789 responded that it was “too soon to tell”. For centuries China saw itself as an isolated kingdom whose territorial claims stopped at the water’s edge, and even in the era when China led the world in nautical technology it never sought to acquire overseas colonies, venture abroad to convert barbarians to Confucian principles or Buddhist virtues. Except for its heavy hand on Taiwan, Tibet and neighbouring islands, it still does not.
Any serious discussion on China is complicated by the nature of that society. It is far from being an open society so that much is left to informed speculation. One thing about China: it usually gets what it wants and its diplomatic skills are legendary. It is dangerous then for Guyana, a country with at best a blurred foreign policy to run headlong into a relationship with China in which it is clearly the junior partner.
A handful of political leaders have bowed to some unusual and unreasonable demands from the Chinese: insisting that only Chinese workers will be employed on a construction site; that it must have a television channel; and that the local laws must be translated into “Chinese”. Only for the Chinese has Guyana practically dispensed with the laws on residence, citizenship and nationality.
As the staff of Ram &McRae pored over the various appendices to the 2013 Budget Speech some interesting features surfaced. Population growth which averaged 0.3% in the past ten years has jumped 1.5% in 2012. Nothing suggests that Guyanese have suddenly become so fertile. Our staff noted that the Budget shows that the construction sector in which the Chinese are becoming the dominant players reflected a decline of 11% in 2011! Corresponding statistics show otherwise. There is strong evidence that the Chinese have not added to the NIS roll of contributors or indeed to the tax revenues of the country.
Guyana has had its fair share of bad experiences with Chinese contractors. Skeldon Sugar factory is a monument of more than Chinese capacity to do poor construction work: it reflected too their determination to avoid liability when things go wrong. That factory and the Moco-Moco mini-hydroelectricity power should warn us that friendship is one thing: the country’s interest is another.
China can build great buildings but also some of the worst. The walls in a hospital in Angola began cracking soon after its opening; a Chinese-built road in Zambia was swept away by rains. Chinese have a poor record on the environment and towards local workers and are known to ignore unions even where they are mandatory or pretend to speak no English. As a result it has run into some headwinds with leading Africans including South Africa President Zuma and Nigeria Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi.
China is a rich, powerful country with a successful record of buying loyalty from the local politicians and officials. China and its products cannot be avoided, wherever one goes. It also makes its demands: no support for Taiwan, Tibet, resolutions critical of China etc. It stood up successfully to the British on Hong Kong and against the Americans on the value of its currency.
Were it not for China many Guyanese might still not be able to afford some of the clothes and shoes they wear or furnish the houses they live in. In the past two years China has given more loans to poor countries, mainly in Africa, than the World Bank. China has money but not to burn. Even on Amaila on which China will make hundreds of millions, the Chinese Ex-Im Bank is seeking IDB cover before it commits itself.
But China’s businesspersons whether they are state operatives or private investors are hardnosed and go for tough bargains, especially when the have the upper hand. Even when they lend money they take their share out first. They have already paid themselves a big chunk of the money for the airport expansion project, even before Guyanese are convinced of the viability of the project. The deals we have struck with the Chinese reflect poorly on our negotiators. They have failed us.
Finally, Guyana now appears to have no foreign policy, let alone a China policy. But the least we should do is hold China to its stated policy of having mutually respectful relationship with Third World countries. And to heed the words of Sanusi: “China is no longer a fellow underdeveloped economy — it is the world’s second-biggest, capable of the same forms of exploitation as the West.”
