Trying to understand ‘convergence’

Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s reference, in her opening remarks at the recent meeting of Caricom Heads in Port of Spain, to the view that “Caricom, as it was originally envisioned, has reached its political, socio-economic and ideological limits,” may have its genesis in the thinking of her foreign minister, Winston Dookeran.

In our editorial of December 21, 2012, ‘Opening up,’ we noted that Mr Dookeran had been making the point that Caricom’s possibilities as an economic union were limited and that, the previous May, he had argued at a meeting of the Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean, here in Guyana, that Caricom should focus more on issues of production integration and competitiveness, advocating “a convergence model that is located in production, distribution and competitiveness.”

It was not clear then how Mr Dookeran had arrived at his conclusion regarding Caricom’s limits – he may have been arguing from the perspective of his country’s economic interests – or what exactly he meant by “convergence.” Giving him the benefit of the doubt, we leant towards the economic theory that the integrated production of goods and the development of value-added supply chains could lead to regional growth, with regional economies eventually converging in terms of per capita income. This, of course, would necessitate the expeditious implementation of the Single Market and Economy (CSME) and there is therefore an appealing logic to the idea. But we might have been mistaken in our inference.

In the first issue (February 2013) of the new and Caribbean Journal of International Relations and Diplomacy, jointly published by the Institute of International Relations (IIR) at St Augustine and the Trinidad and Tobago Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there is reproduced a statement by Mr Dookeran, ‘The Case for a New Caribbean Convergence Model,’ at a seminar on the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac), in November 2012. Whilst still not clarifying his “convergence” theory, Mr Dookeran reiterates his call “to redefine our integration process in the context of production integration. But this time it is not production integration for the region’s economic space, but for building competitive industries globally. The resources in the region, coupled with the political will and the very fertile involvement of the private sector could create some new opportunities. I have referred to that loosely as the process of Caribbean convergence, as oppose [sic] to the structures of Caribbean integration.”

Mr Dookeran then also appears to make a case for widening the scope of Caricom to take account of prevailing “global re-arrangements” and “the diplomatic possibilities that can emerge as the Caribbean and Latin American work together” – presumably in the context of Celac – which would suggest another angle to his “convergence” model. This might perhaps explain his prime minister’s interesting recommendation, at the Caricom summit, to expand the community’s membership to include the Dominican Republic and the Dutch and French Caribbean islands.

Unfortunately, Mr Dookeran’s own use of the word “loosely” is all too appropriate, as we are left none the wiser as to what the theoretical underpinnings of “convergence” are or how precisely Caricom’s floundering regional integration process can be reinvigorated via widening rather than the deepening for which we continue to clamour.

On the other hand, Trinidad and Tobago is known to be interested in exploring market possibilities in the Dominican Republic, Central America and the rest of Latin America, and has just become a full member of the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF in Spanish). So, it would not be too farfetched to assume that Trinidad and Tobago is not going to allow itself to be constrained by Caricom’s relative inactivity. Mr Dookeran may simply be laying the groundwork, albeit imperfectly, to justify this strategy, even as his prime minister occupies the chairmanship of the regional movement.

To be fair, national interests are being pursued in similar vein in other parts of the community. Belize is a full member of the Central American Integration System (Sica) and is becoming increasingly integrated with its neighbours on the isthmus. And Guyana and Suriname, already members of the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) have just been accepted as Associate Members of the Brazil-dominated Common Market of the South (Mercosur) – for Guyana, a reflection of its long-held perception of a continental destiny and for Suriname, experiencing dynamic change under President Dési Bouterse, a sure sign that it has no intention of being left behind. In addition, there is the PetroCaribe/Alba factor.

In our December 21, 2012 editorial, we posited that convergence, taken as “the overlapping of integration schemes” and involving a movement away from the centre of Caricom integration, could easily lead to divergence within Caricom. There is nothing inherently wrong with exploring other alliances and possibilities, but is Caricom strong enough to resist the threat of fragmentation?