Vietnam building deterrent against China in disputed seas with submarines

HONG KONG, (Reuters) – Vietnam will soon have a credible naval deterrent to China in the South China Sea in the form of Kilo-class submarines from Russia, which experts say could make Beijing think twice before pushing its much smaller neighbour around in disputed waters.

A master of guerrilla warfare, Vietnam has taken possession of two of the state-of-the-art submarines and will get a third in November under a $2.6 billion deal agreed with Moscow in 2009. A final three are scheduled to be delivered within two years.

While communist parties rule both Vietnam and China and annual trade has risen to $50 billion, Hanoi has long been wary of China, especially over Beijing’s claims to most of the potentially energy-rich South China Sea. Beijing’s placement of an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam earlier this year infuriated Hanoi but the coastguard vessels it dispatched to the platform were always chased off by larger Chinese boats.

The Vietnamese are likely to run so-called area denial operations off its coast and around its military bases in the Spratly island chain of the South China Sea once the submarines are fully operational, experts said.

That would complicate Chinese calculations over any military move against Vietnamese holdings in the Spratlys or in the event of an armed clash over disputed oil fields, even though China has a much larger navy, including a fleet of 70 submarines, they added.

“Sea denial means creating a psychological deterrent by making sure a stronger naval rival never really knows where your subs might be,” said Collin Koh of Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

“It is classic asymmetric warfare utilized by the weak against the strong and something I think the Vietnamese understand very well. The question is whether they can perfect it in the underwater dimension.”

Vietnam is not wasting time getting to grips with its biggest ever arms purchase, the centrepiece of a naval expansion programme that state media has kept largely under wraps.

From the sheltered harbour of Cam Ranh Bay – home to a massive U.S. military base during the Vietnam War – the first two submarines have recently been sighted plying the Vietnamese coast on training runs, according to regional diplomats.

A Vietnamese crew is training aboard its third Kilo in waters off St Petersburg ahead of its delivery to Cam Ranh Bay in November, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported last month.

And a fourth vessel is undergoing sea trials off the Russian city’s Admiralty Shipyard while the last two are being built.

While regional military attaches and experts are trying to gauge how quickly Vietnamese crews are mastering the advanced submarines, some believe it won’t be too long before Hanoi starts sending them further offshore into the South China Sea.

“The Vietnamese have changed the whole scenario – they already have two submarines, they have the crews and they appear to have the weapons and their capabilities and experience will be growing from this point,” said Siemon Wezeman, an arms transfer researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

“From the point of view of Chinese assumptions, the Vietnamese deterrent is already at a point where it must be very real.”

As well as possessing shorter-range torpedoes, modern Kilos while submerged can launch sea-skimming anti-ship missiles that can travel 300 km (188 miles).

Wezeman said SIPRI estimated that Vietnam had received at least 10 of the 50 Klub anti-ship missiles this year as part of the deal with Moscow, but there was no sign of any purchases of the Klub land-attack variant.

Zhang Baohui, a Chinese security specialist at Hong Kong’s Lingnan University, said he believed Beijing’s military planners were concerned about the submarines.

“On a theoretical level, the Vietnamese are at the point where they could put them to combat use,” he said.