Opposition to President Nicolás Maduro’s administration in Venezuela has escalated into sustained street violence and, in the past week or so, loss of life. The unrest has been growing steadily against the backdrop of a multi-faceted economic crisis that has included skyrocketing commodity prices and food shortages. Mr Maduro’s administration is hugely unpopular with large sections of Venezuela’s middle class.
The current developments are not altogether surprising. The political temperature had been rising even as Hugo Chávez was living out his last days in office. Once it became clear that Mr Maduro had been anointed to succeed President Chávez it appeared that the political opposition came to regard the former trade unionist as ‘soft touch,’ politically, that is, compared with his far more assertive predecessor.
Venezuela has grown used to interludes of political instability and for now at least it seems that the country could be setting a course for the same destination again. For now the Maduro administration is still very much in power though the longer term scenario cannot be predicted.
The two interesting, even disturbing developments, that have materialized on the political script in Caracas in the past week or so have been, first, the killing of opposition demonstrators last Wednesday during street clashes and, second, the deployment of the military in the capital in an attempt to quell the growing unrest.
President Maduro responded to opposition charges that the killings on Wednesday were the work of pro-government enforcers by accusing his opponents of orchestrating the killings to duplicate the political climate of April 2002 when the killing of 19 street demonstrators during violent clashes led to a short-lived coup against Hugo Chávez.
President Maduro says that the unrest on the streets is designed to precipitate a coup and he names the right wing 2013 presidential candidate Leopoldo López as the local mastermind behind the unrest. Externally, he points an accusing finger at former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe whom he accuses of funding opposition activity inside Venezuela. Mr Uribe, it will be recalled, had been an implacable enemy of Mr Chávez, accusing him of supporting Colombia’s FARC rebels. President Maduro believes that Mr Uribe has now extended his ill will beyond the late Venezuelan President.
It is President Maduro’s relationship with the military, however, that is the most intriguing act in the unfolding Venezuelan drama. Last week, he appeared to have little choice but to insert the soldiers into the affray in an effort to quell the worsening disturbances in the capital. Arguably, he would have wished for a more palatable choice.
The cold facts are that less than a year into his civilian administration President Maduro has become heavily dependent on the military to sustain his administration. Last month, in the face of continually eroding relations between his government and the private sector, he had cause to turn to the military, appointing Brigadier General Rodolfo Marco Torres to replace the civilian Finance Minister Nelson Merentes. Currently, around 20 per cent of the Maduro cabinet is occupied by retired or active military officers.
It may be in President Maduro’s political interest to live well with the military. However, while in public statements he has made reference to “civic-military unity” and to the country’s “Chavista armed forces,” cracks have long appeared in the relationship. In a speech made shortly after his election victory President Maduro alluded to “a small group” of military officers whom he said were “under investigation” for contacts with opposition elements that had refused to recognize his election victory.
Nor, one assumes, is Mr Maduro likely to forget that even Chávez, after more than three decades in the military lost the support of some of its elements and almost lost the presidency into the bargain. After that Mr Chávez’s obsession with the loyalty of the military led him to purge 1,500 officers, restructure the military high command and raise soldiers’ pay.
President Maduro would doubtless hardly deny that he is no Chávez, so the question that arises is whether – should civilian opposition to Maduro’s socialist administration persist – the military will keep faith with the former trade union leader, his role as the keeper of Hugo Chávez’s Bolivarian revolution notwithstanding.
