Publication of some initial data from the 2012 census has precipitated a flurry of hypothesizing. Given the nature of our politics, what everyone wants to know is the ethnic breakdown of Guyana’s inhabitants, but that was not forthcoming. Nevertheless, given the overall decline in population that was indicated, at least one general conclusion is clear: Since this country enjoys natural increase (that is an excess of births over deaths) it is therefore losing substantial numbers of its people to migration. That is something, of course, which merely confirms what everybody was convinced of already, so it hardly set the army of analysts on fire.
As it transpired, it was another snippet altogether from the limited data provided which really had the pundits a-twitter, and that was the significant decline in population in Region 6 – the heartland of the ruling party. Exactly how that will translate into ethnic numbers is a matter for pure speculation at the moment, although that said, it will almost inevitably mean some level of decrease in the total of Indian inhabitants on whom the PPP depends at election time.
It was clear from the last census in particular, that demographic changes were under way, and the ruling party, at least, has recognized for a long time that it no longer commands a built-in overall ethnic majority. It is for this reason that it has so assiduously courted the Amerindian vote to augment its traditional constituency. Given the trends, however, the overall ethnic majority will not come again, and as for the Amerindian vote, it will either splinter further, or, as its numerical strength increases, an indigenous leader will step forward to represent the interests of this country’s first inhabitants.
Whatever their exact nature, the census results on top of all the PPP’s other woes cannot have made them very happy. As it is the party is afraid to go to local government elections, because they do not expect a very favourable result, and a poor showing would punch a latticework of holes in the balloon of pretence they have inflated around themselves. On the other hand, it is unlikely that they would want a general election either at the moment, because like everyone else, they have no guarantee about the outcome – more especially in view of the census results, the details of which the highest echelons in government may be better informed about than the rest of us. That said, so far they have indicated they would rather have a national poll than a local one.
In fact, they may be faced with a general election in any case after the Leader of the AFC, Mr Khemraj Ramjattan wrote President Ramotar on Friday saying his party sees “no other alternative” to a no-confidence vote in the House of Assembly following the government’s unauthorized spending of $4.5 billion from the Consolidated Fund in defiance of the constitution and the Fiscal Management and Accountability Act. Were a no-confidence motion to be passed in Parliament, the constitution requires that an election would have to be held within the space of three months.
On Friday evening President Donald Ramotar responded to Mr Ramjattan conceding nothing. Among other things, he disputed the AFC leader’s interpretation of Article 218 of the Constitution of Guyana, and said that the government and the PPP/C were prepared to face the consequences of the motion. Mr Ramotar then listed all the issues which his party believed the AFC had to explain to the electorate should an election be held. Given recent past history, one suspects that the government’s Attorney General will be asked to cast around for legal impediments to acting on any no-confidence motion, should one be passed. The aim would be to find some kind of patina of legitimacy to justify ignoring it, or if that can’t be done, at least delay its implementation for as long as possible.
However, at this stage Freedom House may be gambling on the fact that APNU may not join the AFC in a no-confidence motion, and if it doesn’t then there would be no majority to pass it. The PNC, which is the critical partner in APNU is in disarray, of course, in addition to which its Congress will be held this week when a leader will be elected. It is unlikely, one would have thought, that a decision would be taken before Congress.
Certainly, if the PNC does in due course decline to support the AFC on the no-confidence issue, then not only would the ‘majority’ in Parliament evaporate thereafter, but the party’s own constituency may arguably not be very happy. Where another matter is concerned, the party hierarchy disregarded the signals from its Linden supporters, whom it has now alienated as a consequence, so one suspects that it will not bother to undertake a sampling of the views of its members on this one either.
If APNU does eventually decide to join the AFC in the no-confidence motion, and the government does go into legalistic mode, then at a minimum we will have another impasse to add to a growing list. That would not do the ruling party any good, however, since it would be seen by the international community to be resisting not just local government elections, but general elections as well, and potentially that could attract consequences. Other than that, as already said, it would have to go to national elections.
It may be that it has reconciled itself to the latter route in any case, given the racially offensive editorials which have reappeared in the state newspaper and which are often a harbinger of an election campaign. No matter how much Freedom House retreats into an electoral racial cocoon, however, it must know that the prognostications for an overall majority, as said above, are probably not that good – although possibly this might partly depend on what kind of showing the PNC segment of APNU makes.
Whatever happens in the next general election, however, the longer term demographic trend is clear: the ethnic base of the PPP in particular is shrinking. From the data of past censuses, and by implication this one too, it can be seen that the only ethnic group whose numbers are increasing are the Amerindians, so one should expect (as implied above) that at some point down the road they will come to exert independent political clout. This probably means that we are moving closer to a Suriname model, although we do not have anything like the number of ethnic parties that our neighbour boasts. Nevertheless, it does suggest that coalitions might be written somewhere in our political future, although our current constitution militates against them. It is clearly one obvious area (among others) for constitutional reform.
In the meantime, if APNU does not join itself to the no-confidence motion, or if it does and the government manages to delay a general election, or if a general election is held and it results in plurality arrangements similar to those which exist currently, we could be back to the old logjam. However, if indeed there is a general election and a plurality is returned, surely the PPP/C (presuming it is the one with the plurality) will finally come to the very belated recognition that the world has indeed changed, and that an entirely new approach is called for in which negotiation and compromise become the watchwords.
It puzzles all rational citizens that the government will not accept that the impossible situation in which we find ourselves has more to do with the fact that it has chosen to operate outside the constitutional framework in key respects, and has refused to negotiate anything with the opposition in good faith – and after all, the combined opposition does represent the majority. In other countries there are sanctions for breaching the constitution, but so far, not here is seems.
Be that as it may, there is nothing preventing the ruling party even at this late stage, from getting a little negotiating practice in, and discovering something which everyone else knows, namely that compromise does not mean weakness. And the opposition too must work up some skills in that department. Such skills, while critical now, will become even more so a little further down the line.
