Britain moves to parliamentary elections on May 7th amidst a tremendous uncertainty as to whether any of the political parties, in particular the Conservatives or Labour can gain a clear majority in the House of Commons. Predictions are, therefore, for another coalition government whichever of these two major political parties gets the most seats. But even in that event, the situation appears to be even more uncertain than after the general elections of 2010, when the Conservatives found themselves forced into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
On this occasion, however, there is likely to be more than one minority party with a reasonable number of votes to put themselves in a viable bargaining position. For while after the 2010 election the Liberal Democrats stood out as the only other third party that had gained enough seats to do so, on this occasion it appears not only that the Liberal Democrats are likely to have less than their current number of seats, but other minority parties, in particular the Scottish National Party, will attain a sufficient number to put themselves in a bargaining position with the dominant Conservative or Labour parties.
Two things, in particular, have changed the political landscape since the last general elections. First, there is, at this time, much more contention about Britain’s role in the European Union than there was in 2010. At that time, the Conservatives, generally favourable to continued EU membership, were able to rely on a party with similar positive sentiments towards Europe, the Liberal Democrats, to form a viable majority. On this occasion however, the Conservative government has had, in recent months, to increasingly bow to negative sentiment towards Europe, to the extent of virtually promising a referendum on membership.
This stance has placed the Conservatives in a somewhat unstable relationship with the Liberal Democrats who are fervently pro-EU. And indications therefore are that if the Conservatives do not get an outright majority, the Liberals will almost certainly use continued membership in the EU as their bargaining chip for participation in a new coalition.
In addition, the Liberal Democrats are themselves facing more competition, as bargainers in a potential coalition, than they did in 2010, having clearly lost some electoral support as participants in the current coalition; so the game now seems to be more open particularly in terms of what appears to be a strengthening of the Scottish National Party whose confidence has substantially increased since the referendum on Scottish membership of the United Kingdom itself.
In the midst of the difficulties which the Conservatives now face, the signs are that the Labour Party’s performance so far, has not indicated that it is likely to gain a decisive advantage over the Conservatives in the light of their present difficulties. Both parties have continued to register about 34% of the vote, an increase for Labour, though apparently not a sufficient one, on their performance in 2010. Then, while the Conservatives obtained 36%, Labour obtained 29%, not enough to make themselves viable bargainers for a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats.
On this occasion however, it would appear that the Liberals are unlikely to get the number of seats that they gained in 2010, and that if neither the Conservatives nor the Labour Party are able to get a decisive majority, both of those parties will be looking not only to the Liberals but to the Scottish National Party for parliamentary support. Yet, there seems to be a sense that the demands of that party are likely to be tough, its new leader following on, as it were, from their credible performance in the referendum on Scottish independence.
It is in that context that Britain’s Financial Times newspaper has described the coming election as “the most unpredictable contest in a lifetime”. For if the Conservatives should gain a majority, but not a substantial one, over the Labour party, and are able to form a government, it would appear that a period of instability will be the order of the day, particularly if anti-EU minority parties have a reasonable presence in the House of Commons, and insist on extracting a consolidation of commitments from the Conservatives on a referendum.
At the same time, if Labour should gain a similarly narrow majority, or at least enough to out-bargain the Conservatives towards formation of an alternative coalition government, the odds are that much of the parliamentary term will be spent in meeting commitments made to minority parties drawn in to a coalition. It is well to remember that during the referendum on Scottish secession from the United Kingdom, the Labour Party played a decisive role in helping to maintain the status quo; but it is probably the case that a revived Scottish National party will want to extract substantial promises of further autonomy within the United Kingdom as a price of their support.
So the odds would seem to be that the play of politics is likely to dominate the behaviour of either of the main parties that is successful in the elections. The other governments of the European Union in particular, will be concerned as to whether, be it Conservative or Labour-led, the new government will be consumed by a politics of survival that constantly keeps Britain’s membership of the EU in a state of uncertainty.
From a Caricom perspective, however, it is unlikely that there will be any substantial change in the United Kingdom’s perspective on this part of the world. Though indeed, the prospect of a Britain consumed with its domestic politics to the extent of negotiating substantial domestic concessions to minority parties, can well result in a weakened voice in European Union arrangements in which we must have a continuing interest.
