Dr Clive Thomas

Decision Rule 3 Last week’s column continued the exploration of Guyana’s natural gas prospects, both “associated with/and not associated with” its recent substantial petroleum finds.

Introduction Last week’s column had raised the conundrum: What next? Given that, I am advising against state investment in oil refining therefore, what other major options I am recommending for realizing the substantial potential of Guyana’s recent petroleum finds.

Introduction As matters presently stand, and in order to be precise as well as taking into account the discussion concerning a Guyana state-owned oil refinery has lasted for several weeks (since August 20, 2017) it is perhaps prudent that today’s column starts by summarizing my two recommendations.

Today’s column concludes my discussion of Decision Rule 2, which posits: there is no overall economic justification for a Guyana state-owned oil refinery (of approximately 100,000 barrels/day).

Introduction Today’s column, and the next, continues to evaluate the feasibility of a Guyana state-owned oil refinery, promoted by many as the leading edge of a local content requirements (LCRs) regime aimed at maximizing downstream domestic value-added in the coming petroleum sector.

Introduction In last week’s column I sought to recall, for the benefit of readers, several key observations and conclusions that were drawn from my earlier review of refinery economics in order to support Decision Rule 2.

Introduction Last week’s column focused on reviewing the results of Pedro Haas’ feasibility study for a state-owned oil refinery, sponsored by the Ministry Natural Resources (MoNR).

Introduction Last week’s column was aimed at walking readers who are unfamiliar with economic feasibility studies, through the PowerPoint presentation by Pedro Haas of Hartree Partners, on the feasibility study for a state-owned Guyana refinery.

Introduction Today’s column aims at walking readers through the Guyana Refinery Study, presented in a talk by Pedro Haas of Hartree Partners, in May this year.

Introduction Last Sunday’s column (September 3) marked one year of uninterrupted weekly articles addressing the topic: ‘Guyana in the coming time of its oil and gas industry, circa 2020’.

Introduction: Proviso It is worth repeating: my two previous columns had sought to make it abundantly clear that if a local oil refinery is established, which is wholly owned, managed and operationalized, either separately, or through a partnership (or some other joint arrangement), involving only 1) foreign investors (whether private, state, or some combination thereof), or 2) domestic private investors, this would be acceptable in my judgement, subject to one important proviso or caveat.

Introduction – Re-cap As posited last week, it is my view that the true essence of an oil refinery that is deemed local, lies in its type (form) of ownership, management, and operationalized control.

Introduction As indicated last week, today’s column initiates a presentation in the coming weeks, of my considered view on the efficacy of Guyana establishing a local oil refinery, in order to exhaust successfully the potential benefits of its recent oil and gas discoveries.

Introduction As indicated last week, today’s column aims to update my earlier (October 2016) assessment of Guyana’s petroleum discovery.

Introduction   Today’s column revisits my previous estimate of the likely crude oil price at the time Guyana’s first oil is anticipated to be fully on-stream (2025).

Today’s column concludes the coverage on the economic characteristics of mini-oil refineries, started last week.

Today’s column wraps up the discussion started last week on the general economic characteristics of oil refineries.

Introduction Today’s column addresses several economic factors which are key to the oil refinery business.

Introduction This week’s column and the next will attempt to evaluate the pros and cons of small mini-oil refineries.

Introduction My last column had introduced what is often deemed in the literature as the most fundamental observation related to oil refineries in energy economics.