GuySuCo’s performance indicators I
Introduction In last week’s column on the sugar industry I had ended with the presentation of a table on GuySuCo’s expenditure on two key items, namely, “employment costs” and “materials and services” for the years, 1990, 1995 and the decade of the 2000s. The 1990 data was intended to indicate the situation as it existed [...]
Doomed from the start: GuySuCo’s ‘outside leadership’
Introduction In last week’s column I had indicated that Guyana’s sugar production, similar to the situation in the rest of Caricom, has been so high cost that it could not survive commercially without the special external marketing arrangements which the region had negotiated under the Commonwealth Sugar Agreement (CSA) and its successor the European Commission [...]
Guyana sugar: How do we measure stagnation and decline?
Introduction The detailed figures presented in last Sunday’s column on Guyana’s sugar production for the years 1961 to 2010 (on the basis of 3-year averages) and the accompanying chart reveal three notable features. The first of these is that sugar production had peaked during the period 1961 to 1972. Thus for three of the 3-year [...]
Upside potential: Reviving the manganese industry
Per unit cost/price of gold As we saw last week, despite Guyana’s long historical association with gold discovery and exploration it is ironic to name as an upside potential/achievement that is facing the economy over the near-to-medium term, the prospects of large-scale gold production coming on-stream by 2014. I had mentioned in last week’s article [...]
Upside Potential: Gold, Once more to the rescue!
In the present series of columns I had introduced oil and natural gas exploration and development as the first upside potential/achievement for consideration. This upside potential meets the criteria and features, which I had argued as minimally necessary to qualify for this particular determination. It is important to recognize that, in my view, oil/natural gas [...]
Looking at the Upside Potential of the Economy
Features This week I start a discussion on the upside potential/opportunities facing the Guyana economy. I shall begin by first describing the features required to constitute an upside potential/ opportunity (from the perspective of this column) and then proceed to examine one of these. It is important for me to stress at this stage that [...]
The Remainder Downside Risks Facing the Economy
This week I shall consider the remainder of the downside risks facing the economy over the short-to-medium term. These are 1) further stalls in major projects, which are scheduled to come on-stream soon 2) social-political-macroeconomic instability in the context of near-term national elections and, 3) financial risks facing the National Insurance Scheme. Stalled Projects In [...]
More on downside risks facing the economy
Last week I had briefly assessed the downside risks of significant interruptions to capital and remittance flows into Guyana’s economy. Because of their size and contributions to economic performance, these flows are obvious priorities for consideration in a risk assessment of the economy’s performance over the short-to-medium term. Capital inflows (both overseas development assistance, ODA [...]
Downside risks and Guyana’s economic performance
Introduction In this and the coming weeks, I shall continue my assessment of the short-to-medium term prospects for the Guyana economy. The method I am using is to first consider the downside risks facing the economy, which are those that would impede its performance. Afterwards I shall report on the upside potential and expectations, which [...]
Prospects for Guyana’s Economy over the short-to-medium term
Recently a number of readers have asked me to offer an opinion on the prospects for the Guyana economy over the short-to-medium term. Most of the persons raising this query, I suspect, have a political interest in my response. I shall attempt a response by drawing attention to what economists describe as the downside risks [...]
Economic functions the government should perform and, how effectively they are being performed
Introduction Last Sunday’s column sought to make the argument that, despite the fact government activity in the economy is so huge and it operates as a drag, impeding economic performance and growth, there are at least eight economic functions that the government is best situated to accomplish. It is expected that government would provide these. [...]
Is there no role for government activity in the economy?
Introduction In last Sunday’s column I argued that government activity is operating as a drag on the national economy. Several features of government spending exemplify this outcome, including 1) the poor to negative value returns for public sector spending, particularly its capital expenditures; 2) the unfortunate politicization of what should be commercial/business relations between the [...]
Why government activity is a drag on the national economy
Introduction In last week’s column I discussed two concepts which readers should find useful as we proceed to evaluate the impact of government activity on the economy of Guyana. These concepts are economic efficiency and market failure, as economists strictly define them. One approach I can take towards appraising
Economic efficiency, market failure, government activity and all that
Introduction Last week I demonstrated how huge government activity is in Guyana’s national economy. It has averaged at least 60 per cent of GDP in recent years even when we use the much larger 2006 rebased GDP series. I was careful to caution however, against drawing simplistic conclusions from this observation. There are a number [...]
Government is huge in the economy
Last week I described the three categories of government expenditures which feature in measures of these, if we are to make a reasonable determination of the size and likely impact of government activity on the economy. These are 1) central government expenditures; 2) the expenditure of public enterprises; and 3) tax expenditures. There is very [...]