Dear Editor,
I thank Clinton Urling in his letter captioned “Obama is leading the delegate count for the Democratic nomination” (SN 01/02/08) for his compliment on my polling in the Caribbean. I am not polling in America – merely analyzing the election. Urling is wrong in his conclusion that Obama is ahead of Clinton in the delegates count. As of Jan 29, www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008 has Hillary Clinton with 232 delegates and Obama 152 with John Edwards 62 delegates. Urling is right that although Clinton won two big states, Michigan and Florida, which together would have accounted for over 100 delegates, she received no delegates because the Democratic leaders in both states refused to heed the rules of the national party and hold their primaries later rather than sooner. So they were denied delegates to the convention. Obama and Clinton are statistically tied in national support and although I feel Clinton will defeat him, he still has a chance of upsetting her.
With regards to South Carolina, all the media reported that Hillary Clinton did not actively campaign in SC about a week before the actual contest because she recognized that she could not defeat Obama among African-American voters who constituted more than half the Primary voters. Most local Black politicians in the state endorsed Obama. Bill Clinton campaigned as Hillary’s proxy among African Americans and even though he received enthusiastic welcome among African Americans everywhere (they mobbed him), exit polls found 80% African Americans voted for Obama. So Clinton’s magic (or acceptance as the first Black President as they dub him) could not win SC for his wife. Obama did receive about a quarter of the White vote.
The New York Times, in an analysis, found that Clinton did not spend much time or money in South Carolina. In addition, MSNBC also did an analysis in which it found that Clinton did not actively campaign in SC. There were hardly any pro-Clinton call centres urging voters to support Clinton. In a MSNBC report, voters complained that they received 8 pieces of different literature at different times from Obama’s campaign, 2 pieces from Edwards and nothing from Clinton. I had expected and thought that Clinton campaigned seriously to win SC. It was only on the afternoon of the SC voting that I realized that she was hardly in the state days before the voting. In the afternoon, she took off to Florida for a fundraiser. In keeping with an agreement with the other candidates, she did not campaign in Florida. She was only there for a fundraiser. Her presence in Florida was not an issue for the Obama campaign. But on the evening of the victory, she was present to give a victory speech.
I previously addressed the issue of Obama’s come from behind wins. No one thought he had a chance when he declared his candidacy last summer. But he out-fundraised Clinton and has become a serious contender for the nomination. He is a phenomenal candidate. But as I indicated previously, my analysis shows Clinton will win more delegates when the 54 contests are over.
I should point out that on the Republican side, John McCain is leading Mitt Romney 97 to 74 delegates and although they are so close in numbers, my analysis shows McCain will defeat Romney.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
