Karzai extends Afghan vote lead; run-off indicated

KABUL (Reuters) – Partial Afghan election returns  released yesterday showed President Hamid Karzai extending  his lead in last week’s vote, but still falling short of the 50  per cent needed to avoid a run-off.

Afghanistan has been on tenterhooks since the Aug 20  election, with official results coming out in slow drips,  Karzai’s camp claiming victory and his main rival, former  foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, alleging widespread fraud.

With results from about a third of polling stations  tallied, Karzai leads Abdullah by 46.3 percent to 31.3 percent.

The latest results extend Karzai’s lead substantially from  earlier partial figures, but they still suggest he would face a  run-off, which must be held if no candidate wins more than 50  percent, scheduled for early October.

Results have been coming in at different rates from  different provinces, so it is difficult to guess at the final  outcome. Votes could also be thrown out by a complaints  watchdog which says it is probing more than 2,000 accusations  of fraud and abuse, including 270 serious enough to alter the  outcome.

Western diplomats have said it is still too close to say  whether Karzai can avoid a second round.

Southern provinces, which largely support Karzai, have been  late to report. They are also the areas where many of the fraud  allegations have been concentrated, and where Taliban violence  and threats were most successful in scaring away voters.

Officials have still not given any figure for overall  turnout. With 35 per cent of polling stations tallied, there  were more than two million votes recorded, suggesting total  turnout of around 6 million, although officials warn against  extrapolating.

The turnout appears disappointing in a country of about 30  million people, with an estimated 15 million eligible voters.
Test for Obama

Taliban militants had vowed to disrupt the election and  fired scores of rockets at towns and cities on polling day. The  attacks failed to prevent the election from taking place,  prompting Western officials to describe the election as a  success.

Those assessments have since grown more circumspect, with  reports of very low turn-out in some violent southern provinces  and mounting allegations of fraud.

The election is also a test for the strategy of President  Barack Obama, who has rushed thousands of extra troops to  Afghanistan in a bid to reverse Taliban gains. There are now  more than 100,000 Western troops in Afghanistan, including  63,000 Americans, about half of whom arrived this year.

The commander of US and NATO forces, General Stanley  McChrystal, is finalising a review and may ask for still more.

US and British forces have launched major advances into  Taliban-held territory, taking by far the worst casualties of  the eight-year-old war. In Britain’s case, the casualties have  been its worst in combat in a generation, mostly from roadside  bombs.