When Tony Blair resigned from office in June 2007, after ten years as British Prime Minister, he had set a record as being the longest-serving British Labour Party prime minister. In that year he had led his party to victory for a third successive time. Yet with that record, he left as political storm clouds were gathering around him, and under pressure from his Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. Blair and Brown had led the country through a period of almost unprecedented prosperity, and at the time of his leaving, the economic clouds that we see over Britain today were hardly perceptible on the horizon.
It had been widely felt that Blair had, before the election of 1997 promised to turn the premiership over to Brown, and Brown, who had been one of the persons critical to Labour’s first victory in 1997, seemed increasingly anxious that the promise be fulfilled. That Blair gave in to him was itself a sign that in spite of leading the party to a third victory, he was not himself feeling as politically comfortable as one with his record should have been. Brown himself, having gained the reputation as a successful Chancellor, could claim some of the credit for Labour’s successes, and decided to call in his debt.
While the economic clouds had not yet really gathered, observers had begun to note that Labour as a party was not in a good mood. There was dissatisfaction with Blair, particularly from the left but not excluding MPs of the centre, on the issue of his close alliance with George Bush and the enterprise of intervention in Iraq. The British Labour Party has had a long tradition on the issue of morality and war, and to many, Blair seemed to disregard it as he supported Bush’s rationales for bringing down Saddam Hussein. Unlike Bush, in the early stages of the intervention Blair could not summon much British intellectual opinion to his side, and increasingly on this issue, put himself in a situation of political isolation, within his own party.
In their tenure too, both Blair and Brown seemed to take a delight in adopting the central aspects of the liberalization and privatization policies of Margaret Thatcher, much against the traditions of a strong element of Labourism. They abolished from the Labour pantheon, the belief in a strong role for the state, and could claim, after a while, that they had also abolished a long-standing perception of the centre-right – some of the middle classes in Britain – that Labour was a socialist party, holding dear the doctrine of nationalization. As the economy continued to grow, increasing prosperity, particularly in Blair’s second term, gave them increasing confidence that they were on the right track in both domestic, economic, and foreign policy. It was during that period that Brown could boast that Labour had abolished the swings of prosperity and depression that had characterized Britain’s economy over the post-war years.
The turn of American public opinion against George Bush, particularly as the Iraq war seemed to prolong itself, came to affect Blair’s popularity in Britain, and became the occasion for the exertion of pressure by Brown’s supporters against him. The cup passed to Brown’s lips, but it appears that the wine had already begun to turn bitter. The financial and economic meltdown, and in particular the near-collapse of significant British commercial banks, had the effect of breaking Brown’s own reputation as an economic policy wizard. The extensive intervention by the Chancellor to save the banks has broken the myth of the end of British socialism and state intervention, and the spectre of a British government pouring millions, nay billions, of pounds to save miscreant bankers has not been a pleasant sight for Labour’s supporters. Middle of the road opinion too, has become increasingly vocal about the large government deficits, scheduled to continue for some time. The situation has brought down the wrath of large numbers of voters from all spectrums of the political scene on Brown and Labour, and his own internal opponents – no doubt some still Blairites – have gone after him with a vengeance, calling for his resignation.
The results in electoral terms, have been seen in the recent local government and European Union elections where Labour has descended to some of the lowest levels of support, certainly since the decade or so before the Second World War. The party’s percentage support in the local government elections has been in the low 20s, and has gone below that in the European elections.
Yet, a lot of traditional Labour support has not gone to the Conservatives, but either by way of abstention, or to minority parties which hitherto have not been of significance. Particularly relevant for Caribbean people, is the rise of the British National Party, whose opposition to the presence of immigrants to Britain is very clear. The question arising now is whether the trend to minority parties will spread, or whether the Conservatives can gather in the ground. But polling figures, over the last year at least, have consistently shown a decline of Labour’s support, and it would appear that it would be a Herculean task to reverse the trend, especially given the divisions now surfacing in the Labour Party.
Gordon Brown has had a good reputation over the years as a British Chancellor deeply concerned with increasing aid to developing countries, and in supporting efforts in the European Union to that effect. Up to recently, he led the G20 discussions on this. The Conservatives have been busy opposing the Lisbon Treaty designed to enhance the functioning of the EU’s institutions and to give Europe a more consistent policy visibility in the international arena. Their attitude would not appear to bode well for developing countries, and it is probably the case that they will be less vigorous than Labour in influencing European aid and trade policy towards the ACP states in particular.
Some may recall that Mrs Thatcher had a reputation for being somewhat lukewarm towards the Common-wealth as an international institution. We have to wonder whether the Conservative leader, David Cameron, described as a traditional Tory, will be inclined in the same direction.
