President Barack Obama has maintained the US trade embargo on Cuba by extending the 1917 Trading with the Enemy Act for another year. The US media say this is a largely symbolic step used by past presidents, since the 1996 Helms-Burton Law would have maintained the sanctions even if Mr Obama had not signed the extension.
The action has however disappointed the growing anti-embargo faction in the United States. Those in favour of a more open policy towards Cuba say that it sends a wrong signal to the Cuban government and to Latin America in general about the intentions of the new US administration, since the optimism occasioned by Mr Obama’s engagement with Latin American and Caribbean leaders at the Fifth Summit of the Americas in Trinidad in April.
It should be noted though that while the Obama administration has given every indication of holding out the olive branch to Cuba and has promised a “new beginning” to end almost five decades of mutual distrust, based on Mr Obama’s own acknowledgment that the embargo has failed to bring about political change in Cuba, the American president is adhering to his campaign promise to maintain the embargo until the Cuban government reciprocates with some positive political changes of its own. The embargo is still the stick behind whatever carrots are offered.
But the strongest criticism of the embargo has always been that the sanctions do not harm the Cuban government as much as they serve to increase economic hardship for the Cuban people. Partly in recognition of this and even though Mr Obama himself has made no new significant policy announcements on Cuba since April, the US Treasury earlier this month eliminated restrictions on travel and remittances by Cuban-Americans to Cuba and laid the legal groundwork for the resumption of banking and telecommunications ties between the USA and Cuba. The direct postal service between the two countries may also be resumed in the near future, although Cuba has insisted in the past that this must be accompanied by a resumption of regular scheduled commercial flights.
Such incremental steps could eventually lead to a massive inflow of cash and consumer items into Cuba from an estimated 1.5 million Cuban-Americans, which would provide a significant boost to the Cuban economy, already desperately short of foreign currency. The new regulations also potentially allow US companies to set up fibre-optic cable and satellite links and enter mobile phone roaming service agreements with Cuba, which would give them an invaluable foothold in the relatively backward Cuban telecommunications industry. This could also herald an information revolution on the island, if the Cuban government so permits.
All of this will, of course, have profound implications for the Cuban economy, Cuban society and the Revolution. We have previously referred to the Cuban paradox, that is, as much as Cuba needs the lifeline provided by these new flows, which would also help to raise the standard of living of its citizens, and, if managed properly, might even help to ensure the survival of the Revolution for a few more years, the influx of dollars, goods and ideas would also undoubtedly contribute to an undermining of state control and of the Revolution itself. The new steps announced by the Treasury are therefore just the thin end of the wedge.
Interestingly enough, President Raúl Castro has just this week authorized the free use of the Internet in Cuba, which signals a dramatic shift in government policy which had hitherto limited the use of the Internet to social purposes. Cubans can now surf the net on computers installed in state-run post offices. Big Brother may still be watching them, but perhaps there is now an implicit recognition that the government cannot restrict people’s access to information forever.
Nonetheless, as has long been argued, the free movement of Cuban-Americans and American goods to Cuba and the opening up of commercial possibilities can only contribute to creating opportunities for trade and development as well as spreading new notions of democracy, human rights and freedom.
There are clear signals that the Obama administration is willing to open up to Cuba, even if incrementally, as it reaches out with carrots at the same time that it still waves the stick. But it cannot have escaped the attention of the Cuban leadership that the carrots themselves may be nothing but subtler versions of the big stick. It remains to be seen how much the Cuban government is willing to open up in return and how quickly they will respond to the pressure for change. Perhaps it is now only a matter of time.
