There is usually a fine line dividing overwhelming folly from extreme courage. At the time of writing, it is not clear how exactly to categorise the unexpected and dramatic act of brinkmanship by the deposed president of Honduras, Manuel Zelaya, who on Monday morning slipped into the country, by an overland route from Nicaragua, and is now ensconced in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa.
One thing is clear though: Mr Zelaya’s action is intended to provoke an outcome, one way or another, to the three month-old standoff with the de facto regime of Roberto Micheletti, which had been threatening to arrest Mr Zelaya if he returned and which intends to hold on to power until the presidential elections on November 29.
Soon after news of Mr Zelaya’s return spread, thousands of his supporters gathered around the embassy. Mr Zelaya urged the authorities not to use violence against the demonstrators, more of whom rallied overnight to defy a curfew imposed on the capital on Monday afternoon. Early on Tuesday, however, the security forces used truncheons, tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse them. With soldiers and police surrounding the embassy and the curfew extended until yesterday morning, the situation remains extremely tense. There are, quite understandably, fears of a bloodbath, should things get out of hand.
Mr Zelaya’s surprise action would appear to be a calculated gamble. But apart from the obvious risk of inflaming the crisis in Honduras, it does present opportunities for a renewed push for a negotiated solution.
The OAS Permanent Council, on Monday, called for the immediate signing of President Oscar Arias’s 12-point San José Agreement, which includes the reinstatement of Mr Zelaya. The Permanent Council also called on Mr Micheletti’s interim government not to harm President Zelaya and expressed full support for efforts by Secretary General José Miguel Insulza to facilitate dialogue and the restoration of the constitutional order in Honduras.
In the face of demands by Mr Micheletti that Brazil hand over Mr Zelaya, Brazil’s Foreign Minister, Celso Amorim, has warned that any threat to the ousted president or the Brazilian embassy would be a grave breach of international law and would not be tolerated. President Lula da Silva, in addressing the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, called for Mr Zelaya to be reinstated, though he has also urged him not to provoke a confrontation, reiterating the need for a negotiated resolution of the crisis and endorsing Mr Insulza as the preferred negotiator. In addition, Brazil and the United States, along with other OAS members, supported the convening of a UN Security Council meeting yesterday to deal with the situation in Honduras.
The United States, for its part, has stated unequivocally that there should be dialogue. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said: “It’s imperative that dialogue begin… [that] there be a channel of communication between President Zelaya and the de facto regime in Honduras.” Following a meeting with President Arias in New York, as Monday’s events in Honduras unfolded, Ms Clinton stated: “Now that President Zelaya has returned, it would be opportune to reinstate him under the appropriate conditions, to go ahead with the elections scheduled for November, to have a peaceful transition of presidential authority and to return Honduras to constitutional and democratic order.”
Following an intense day of diplomatic activity in New York on Wednesday, it was reported that Mr Insulza would lead an OAS mission to Honduras this weekend to renew negotiations in Honduras. In addition, the international community, in a gesture of support, would send back ambassadors who had been recalled after the coup in June.
Mr Micheletti, on the other hand, though signalling that he would be prepared to meet with Mr Zelaya, if he first accepted the primacy of the November elections, has also said, in a BBC interview on Tuesday, that he does not understand what there is to be negotiated, since “the negotiations we have in Honduras are to hold elections on 29 November, choose a new president, and hand over power on 27 January as mandated by the constitution and electoral law.”
One thing about Mr Micheletti, he has been consistent in his opposition to Mr Zelaya’s return, branding him a violator of the constitution and someone whose word cannot be trusted.
It is no surprise then that he continues to hold firm in resisting Mr Zelaya’s reinstatement, even with restricted powers.
Mr Zelaya, for his part, continues to be unpredictable. The Guatemalan press has reported that the Nicaraguan ambassador to the OAS had quoted Mr Zelaya as telling President Daniel Ortega that he would not accept the San José Agreement. This appears to have prompted Mr Insulza to declare that Mr Zelaya had given him his personal assurance of his intention “to seek a peaceful dialogue on the basis of the San José Agreement.”
The gathering of hemispheric leaders and foreign ministers in New York this week has provided an opportunity for renewed international efforts to achieve a settlement in Honduras. Mr Insulza himself believes that the deposed president’s return to Honduras is a “great opportunity” for securing a peaceful solution to the crisis. Indeed, a mediated solution is imperative to avoid widespread violence and a possible conflagration. According to an Associated Press report, neither Brazil nor the OAS appears to have played any part in Mr Zelaya’s return.
But perhaps there is, when all’s said and done, method in what might appear to some as Mr Zelaya’s madness. Ultimately, one hopes that good sense will prevail on both sides.
