BRASILIA, (Reuters) – Dilma Rousseff, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s former chief of staff and hand-picked successor, appears to be cruising to Brazil’s presidency and only an unforeseen setback such as a corruption scandal seems likely to stop her.
The latest opinion poll showed Rousseff, the nominee of Lula’s center-left Workers’ Party, with the support of 39 percent of voters ahead of the Oct. 3 election, with her main rival Jose Serra, the former governor of Sao Paulo state, drawing 34 percent.
Rousseff, benefiting from the backing of a popular president and a booming economy, has erased the 20 percentage point poll lead that centrist opposition candidate Serra had held about six months ago.
Serra is struggling to make headway against the 62-year-old Rousseff, who is promising more of the same after eight years of Lula’s presidency. Rousseff, who also served as Lula’s energy minister, could usher in a bigger state role in the economy.
It no longer seems far-fetched that Rousseff could win the election outright on Oct. 3 by getting more than half the votes, avoiding a runoff pitting the two top vote-getters.
“I don’t see anything short of a major corruption scandal that could overturn her lead,” said Fernando Lattman-Weltman, professor of politics at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a Rio de Janeiro-based business school.
Lula, a former union leader who enthralls crowds with his common touch, is due to step up his campaigning at Rousseff’s side in the coming days, handing her a further advantage.
“From now on, Lula will be stepping into the ring more often,” Jose Eduardo Dutra, the head of Rousseff’s Workers’ Party, told Reuters.
‘BAD LUCK’
Lula seemed to almost pity Serra in an interview in Istoe magazine last weekend, saying the former health minister had been unfortunate to run up against him in the 2002 election and looked to have been cursed again this year.
“I think he hit bad luck,” said Lula, who is barred by the constitution from running for a third-straight four-year term.
Rousseff’s campaign seems to be gathering more financial backing than Serra, an Ivy League-educated politician with broad managerial experience. Rousseff is drawing about three times the amount of donations from businesses as Serra.
Graft accusations have often surfaced during election campaigns and the ruling coalition PMDB party has been at the center of several such scandals.
Allegations of bribery and illegal campaign financing involving Rousseff’s Workers’ Party pushed Lula to the brink of an impeachment process in 2005 and slashed his approval ratings by 20 percentage points. He was re-elected a year later.
A runoff election, if necessary, would be held on Oct. 31. In order for Rousseff to win outright in the first round, experts say former environment minister Marina Silva, now running third, likely would have to pull out or foul up badly.
Silva, who polls show is drawing about 10 percent of the vote, is seen as attracting environmentalists and leftists disappointed with the moderate Lula.
MORE DEBATES AHEAD
Rousseff still faces challenges. The candidates are set to appear in three more televised debates. Free campaign ads are set to begin appearing on national TV next week.
Running for her first elected office, Rousseff’s speeches often are very technical and her appearance stiff. The Serra camp hopes to use TV to convince voters he is better qualified and more experienced. Rousseff will have more air time due to her coalition’s larger number of seats in Congress.
“Rousseff’s support is based on (the public’s) admiration for Lula. Serra’s vote is based on reason, not emotion, and that takes longer to reach voters,” said Luiz Paulo Vellozo Lucas, a congressional leader from Serra’s PSDB party.
In the first television debate last week, Rousseff stumbled in response to a few questions from Serra but otherwise held her ground.
While Serra appeared more assertive and poised than Rousseff, he failed to capitalize on her flaws, wary of the risks of criticizing Lula’s popular government.
“Serra can step up the tone a notch but I’m not sure TV will be able to change the direction of the race,” said Rachel Meneguello, a political scientist at the University of Campinas in Sao Paulo, who has carried out surveys of voter behavior.
“Barring major mistakes, she should win this race.”
