Talks fail to bridge gap with Iran

VIENNA, (Reuters) – An agreement to hold more talks in  the dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme was probably the best  result major powers could have hoped for in their first meeting  with the Islamic Republic in more than a year.

But while the outcome of two days of discussions in Geneva  — a plan to meet again early next year in Turkey — may allow  the West to nurture hopes of possible progress toward resolving  the row, there was no sign of any rapprochement in substance.

Iran’s nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili made clear his  country would not back down over its uranium enrichment work,  activity which the West suspects is aimed at developing bombs  but Tehran says is for peaceful electricity generation.

The six big powers involved in efforts to find a diplomatic  solution — the United States, Russia, France, Germany, Britain  and China — want Iran to curb such activity to reassure the  world about its intentions.   But analysts say Iran’s hardline leaders, who use the  nuclear programme to rally nationalist support and distract from  domestic problems, are unlikely ever to agree to this demand.

“This government has obviously linked the development of the  nuclear programme so closely to its own legitimacy that it would  be difficult for them to backtrack on it,” said Gala Riani of  the IHS Global Insight consultancy.

Western officials say tougher international sanctions  imposed on Iran since June are hurting the oil-dependent  economy, and they hope this will persuade Tehran to enter  serious negotiations about its nuclear programme.

Iran dismisses the impact of these penalties, saying trade  and other measures imposed since the 1979 Islamic revolution  toppled the U.S.-backed shah have made the country stronger.

Such rhetoric is to be expected from Tehran, but experts and  diplomats are far from confident that external pressure alone  will be enough to force Tehran to climb down, with some  suggesting the big powers may also have to compromise.

Echoing the views of others, analyst Nicole Stracke of the  Dubai-based Gulf Research Center said the West could agree to  continued Iranian uranium enrichment, which can have both  civilian and military purposes.

Under this scenario, Iran would need to let the U.N. nuclear  watchdog carry out more intrusive, wider-ranging inspections to  make sure it is not secretly developing nuclear weapons.

“It would be painful but it could be acceptable for the  U.S.,” Stracke said about the possibility of the powers backing  down on their demand that Iran suspends all enrichment-related  activities, provided that Tehran accepts tougher inspections.

“It puts the ball in the Iranian corner.”

In Geneva, a U.S. official said enrichment suspension  remains the powers’ position, mandated by U.N. resolutions.

A senior Western diplomat, from a country which is not  involved in the negotiations with Iran, said he did not believe  the Obama administration could sign up to any deal relaxing this  demand ahead of the 2012 presidential elections.

“I just don’t think the politics will work,” the  Vienna-based diplomat said, adding the diplomatic track on Iran  appeared not to be going anywhere. “The military track starts to  come back into evidence, unfortunately.”

Israel and the United States have not ruled out military  action if diplomacy fails to halt sensitive Iranian nuclear  work. But at the same time U.S. military chiefs have made clear  they view it as a last resort, fearing it could ignite wider  conflict in the Middle East.

Proliferation expert Shannon Kile, of the Stockholm  International Peace Research Institute, said he believed the  world powers and Iran needed “to break out of a zero-sum game…  to a situation where both sides can come away claiming a win”.