Poll results at the constituency level in Grenada were almost all within the margin of error

Dear Editor,

I am responding to Mr Freddie Kissoon’s letter captioned ‘Bisram got it wrong’ (SN, January 27) in which he attacked me for polls conducted in Grenada. I conceded in a SN letter on July 4, 2008 (‘NACTA poll shows PM Mitchell’s party winning Grenada’s election’) that the NACTA poll’s projection of a landslide (in terms of seats) for the then ruling NNP was not borne out, offering a brief explanation for the discrepancy.

However, NACTA’s findings of support for the parties in the 15 individual constituencies are more or less on target (see table).  It was not unreasonable to project the NNP winning a landslide over the then opposition NDC, based on the poll’s determination that the NNP had a swing in its favour and would win the close seats. It did not win most of the marginals as I had reasoned.

A poll has a margin of error, and when it is factored into the findings of popular support for the two parties, the Grenada findings are well within the actual results in virtually all constituencies, as well as in the overall popular support for the parties. For example, in St Andrews SE, the poll had the NNP winning 50-44.  It lost 46-49.  The outcome is well within the findings when factoring in the margin of error of 6%.  And the same holds true for most of the other seats as the table reveals. The poll had the NNP leading the NDC 52-46.  The actual outcome was 48-51 well within the 6% error. Only in St George South was the finding outside the margin of error.

According to the NACTA poll, the NNP was ahead in nine seats and there were close contests in several others.  With the swing of 3% in its favour, it was not unreasonable to conclude that it would win a landslide given momentum and the effects of incumbency. Obviously the reasoning was proven wrong by voters.  But the actual numbers in terms of popular support were upheld by the polls’ findings.

Other pollsters also had the NNP winning an unprecedented fourth term. A website report from Google reveals that a poll conducted by Prof Peter Wickham of Cadres of Barbados had the NNP in the lead by 4%.  A media operative told me that a later Cadres poll had an even larger margin favouring the NNP. And Prof Johnson of Jamaica had the NNP well ahead of the NDC.  Mr Kissoon did not chide or castigate or critique those pollsters for their wrong assessment, although he brandished his sharp sword against Bisram.  I let the readers form their own conclusion about his fixation on me.

With regard to why all the pollsters got it wrong, my own explanation is the respondents gave an answer they thought the interviewers wanted to hear, or they changed their views within the last 24 hours. One explanation offered by an NDC official was that many voters did not tell interviewers or pollsters exactly how they planned to vote, fearing repercussions at their jobs. In other words, they lied about how they planned to vote.  A poll cannot be held accountable for respondents’ dishonest answers.

Mr Kissoon claims that “his friends in Grenada told him there was no one by the name of Vishnu Bisram conducting surveys in Grenada.”  This is similar to his claim that his friends at the New York Times told him no one by the name of Vishnu Bisram was a teacher in NY or anywhere in America.  We know how that claim turned out.  It is also similar to his claim that his friends told him that Vishnu Bisram was the subject of a panel discussion at Miami University. We know what OAS Assistant Secretary General Albert Ramdin said of that claim.  I made half a dozen trips (I have ticket receipts to substantiate my claims) to Grenada in 2008 and was there for more than a week before the day of voting in July 2008.  I conducted several tracking polls from 2005 through 2008 and am prepared to offer proof. I appeared on two TV and two radio stations on several occasions.  In addition, I visited the offices of the two major newspapers which carried the poll findings.  I employed over a dozen college students and teachers to conduct interviews and I visited many homes getting to meet many Guyanese in the process as well as learning the history of Indian indentured servitude in Grenada.

Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram