NEW YORK, (Reuters) – Hurricane Irene caused as much as $1.1 billion in insured losses in the Caribbean, catastrophe modeling company AIR Worldwide said today, with more expected to come as the storm heads for the U.S. Northeast.
Yet in a sign of the confusion sure to plague insurers in days to come, rival catastrophe modelers Eqecat said late on Friday losses in the region were likely no more than $600 million.
While no one knows yet precisely where Irene will strike or how strong it will be at the time, it seemed certain as of Friday that Philadelphia, the New Jersey shore, New York City, Long Island and broad swaths of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts were all going to be hit.
The insured losses for the Caribbean will range from $500 million to $1.1 billion, mostly from the Bahamas, said AIR, one of the three companies the insurance industry relies on to model the impact of both natural and man-made disasters.
AIR had warned Irene was likely to do more damage to the islands than 1999’s Floyd, the last hurricane to strike them in such a direct way.
But Eqecat said its own models suggested losses of $300 million to $600 million. That the two would differ in their estimate is not unusual. However, it also serves as a reminder of how difficult it can be to assess storm damage in the days and even weeks after the fact.
The next question is what Irene will do to the U.S. East Coast, with some estimates putting more than $4 trillion of insured coastal property in its path. The losses, by some accounts, could be enormous.