Saudi Crown Prince Sultan dies, focus on Prince Nayef

DUBAI, (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Sultan  has died, the royal court said today, opening the way for  Interior Minister and reputed conservative Prince Nayef to  become the likely heir apparent of the world’s top oil exporter.
Prince Sultan, whose age was officially given as 80 and who  died in New York of colon cancer early on Saturday Saudi time,   had been a central figure in Saudi decision-making since  becoming defence minister in 1962 and was made crown prince in  2005.
Saudi analysts predicted an orderly transition at a time  when much of the rest of the Middle East is in turmoil as  populations have risen up against their autocratic leaders.
Sultan’s health had declined in recent years and he spent  long periods outside the kingdom for medical treatment. A 2009  U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks described him as “to  all intents and purposes incapacitated”.
The country’s ruler, King Abdullah, is now likely to summon  an untested Allegiance Council of the ruling al-Saud family to  approve his preferred heir.
Most analysts believe that is likely to be Prince Nayef, who  was appointed second-deputy prime minister in 2009, a position  usually given to the man who is third-in-line to rule.
“The succession will be orderly,” said Asaad al-Shamlan, a  professor of political science in Riyadh. “The point of  reference will be the ruling of the Allegiance Council. It seems  to me most likely Nayef will be chosen. If he becomes crown  prince, I don’t expect much immediate change.”
He has gained a reputation as more conservative than either  King Abdullah or Prince Sultan, with a close relationship with  the country’s powerful clergy. However, as king he might be more  likely to follow to a moderate line in keeping with the al-Saud  tradition of governing by consensus, say analysts.
King Abdullah set up the Allegiance Council in 2006 to make  the family’s complex succession process more transparent. In the  past, the succession was decided in secret by the king and a  coterie of powerful princes, before being made public.
Under the new system, the 34 branches of the ruling family  born to the kingdom’s founder King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud will each  have a vote to confirm the king’s nominee for crown prince or  appoint their own candidate.
Prince Nayef has been interior minister since 1975 and has  managed the kingdom’s day-to-day affairs during absences of both  the king and crown prince.