Succession in politics and the politics of succession can be rather thorny issues.
Just over a month ago, Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands announced that she was abdicating, at the age of 75 and after a reign of 33 years, in favour of her son, Crown Prince Willem-Alexander, who will become King on April 30. Her fellow monarch, Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom, even though she is almost 87 and has been Queen for 61 years, shows no sign, however, of stepping down to allow her son, Charles, to ascend to the throne. It is understood that she has an ironclad concept of duty although the cynics say that she will not allow Charles to reign while she is still alive. A certain degree of continuity and predictability is, of course, important in constitutional monarchies but, perhaps, the right to hereditary rule, even if no longer as the Lord’s anointed, has its limits.
Pope Benedict XVI, 85, conscious of his failing body and perhaps weighed down by the controversies surrounding the Roman Catholic Church during his pontificate, has surprised his followers and the world by relinquishing the papacy. Now, the Vatican may not be the most democratic institution in the world but, at least, there is a centuries-old method, albeit shrouded in secrecy and arcane ritual, for choosing the next Pope.
On a rather more mundane level, just last weekend, Cuban President Raúl Castro announced his intention to retire, though not for another five years, when he will be 86. As is well known, he himself took over the presidency in 2006 when his brother, the legendary Fidel, felt constrained by illness to hand over the mantle of leadership. But Fidel, himself now 86, is still regarded as the éminence grise of Cuban politics and the Castro brothers, moreover, do not seem keen to loosen their hold on power, with the potential for dramatic change perhaps greater than it has ever been in this the sixth decade of the Revolution.
Until now, there has been every indication that they intend to manage that change themselves to ensure the survival of the Revolution rather than doing anything to roll it back. Indeed, the whole issue of transition has been seen as best managed by the old guard and the idea that Raúl will not step down for another five years would seem to suggest that they also want time to groom the man tipped as his successor, Miguel Díaz-Canel, 52, the new first vice-president of the ruling Council of State, for, in Raúl’s words, the “orderly transfer of key roles to new generations.”
In Venezuela, President Hugo Chávez, a disciple of the Castros and their ideological heir apparent in Latin America, faces a particularly grim challenge to his personal survival. His silence and lack of visibility for almost two months now would seem to presage the worst. He has been kept politically alive by what smacks of constitutional sleight of hand by his followers but it is probably only a matter of time before the government’s hand is forced and they are compelled to choose a successor to the charismatic authoritarian. In this respect, the Cuban influence is said to be particularly strong, especially as Havana might prefer the more ideologically susceptible and perhaps more malleable Vice-president Nicolás Maduro, tapped by Mr Chávez to succeed him, rather than the more unpredictable president of the National Assembly, Diosdado Cabello. But uncertainty reigns in Venezuela.
Of course, we in Guyana know all about the perils of a lack of succession planning. It was fortunate that when President Forbes Burnham died suddenly in 1985, the People’s National Congress held to the hierarchical order put in place by Mr Burnham and there was a relatively smooth transition to Desmond Hoyte rather than to any other more mercurial contender. But when President Cheddi Jagan himself died in office, the People’s Progressive Party seemed completely unprepared for filling the huge hole left by his loss and, instead of opting for someone who could both preserve key elements of Dr Jagan’s legacy and effect political and economic reform, it turned to his widow, Janet Jagan, and her surprising formula for skipping a generation of party leaders.
Succession planning is critical to politics and succession politics is central to the quality of democracy itself and its long-term sustainability. Real democracy demands a transparent system of succession, within political parties and at the level of government, to reinforce the practice of democracy and to guarantee the level of continuity and predictability necessary for stability and progress.
