EDINBURGH (Reuters) – The rival campaigns in Scotland’s fight over independence are running neck-and-neck nine days before the referendum, with a surge in support for those who wish to break away from the United Kingdom, a TNS poll showed today.
The number of people saying they would vote “No” to independence had dropped to 39 per cent, down from 45 per cent a month ago. “Yes” support was slightly behind at 38 per cent but had gained ground from 32 per cent a month ago.
“This poll reveals a remarkable shift in voting intentions,” said Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland. “It is too close to call and both sides will now be energised to make the most of the last few days of the campaign and try and persuade the undecided voters of the merits of their respective campaigns.”
The late rally by the “Yes” campaign led by Alex Salmond’s Scottish National Party, the ruling party in Scotland, now makes the break-up of the United Kingdom – previously thought to be a pipedream – a distinct possibility after a 300-year-old union.
British financial markets tumbled yesterday after an opinion poll showed for the first time this year that Scots may vote for independence in the referendum next week.
The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times put the “Yes” camp on 51 per cent and “No” on 49 per cent, excluding don’t knows.
The referendum, in which more than 4 million Scots and residents of Scotland are eligible to vote, will take place on September 18.
The TNS poll of 990 people, carried out between August 27 and September 4, found a surge in the number who said they were certain to vote to 84 per cent. Among those certain to vote, “No” and “Yes” were tied on 41 per cent compared with 46 per cent and 38 per cent respectively in the previous month.
Women – previously seen as reticent about independence – showed a strong move towards a “Yes” vote. There was also an increased likelihood to vote “Yes” amongst those aged under 55.
