Scotland’s proposed secession from Britain

With a proposed date for a vote on secession from Great Britain of September 18 now almost within reach, the governing Scottish National Party (SNP) finds itself facing stiff competition from the forces opposed to the establishment of an independent Scotland.

All the leading political parties in England have expressed opposition to independence, and the leader of the SNP, First Minister Alex Salmond, has found himself facing a stiff series of debates, the second held Monday, before this editorial will have appeared. And he has perhaps been surprised by the extent to which both the British Conservative party and Labour party have devoted themselves to continually elaborating the specific reasons for what appears to be their very firm opposition to Scottish political autonomy.

In particular, the British Labour Party has positioned one of its key personalities, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, himself a Scotsman, to lead the attack in Scotland in agreed debates with Salmond, an initiative which, in the first of these debates, public opinion rewarded Labour by showing him to have won on behalf of the No campaign.

It is appearing that Salmond and his SNP underestimated the breadth of sentiment in favour of Scotland remaining in Great Britain that has been demonstrated by a Labour Party that has shown no hesitation in joining with the Conservatives to resist the SNP’s initiative.

Salmond himself seems to have opened the door to fervent opposition particularly on the part of British Labour by showing a certain indecisiveness on the issue of what aspects of policy and institutional arrangements now held in common with England and Wales he would really wish to retain.

In particular, he has insisted that his party would continue to ensure that an independent Scotland would retain the British pound as its currency. And in addition, that Scotland would not be averse to continuing participation in the British National Health Service, as well as having the British Broadcasting Service (which has a Scottish service) as part of the new nation’s general information system.

In turn, the Conservative and Labour’s joint approach to Salmond and the SNP’s independence initiative, and to other supporters of Scottish independence, has been focused on what would appear as an intention, according to an old British saying, to ‘eat their cake and still continue to have it.’

For in their counterattack on the Scottish leader and advocates of independence, both the English parties insist that there is much scope for further devolution of power from the British Parliament to the Scottish Parliament; that Scotland could be part of the euro currency system (of which Britain is not a member), but that the British monetary system cannot permit participation with no institutional responsibility in the use of the British currency; and that the notion that Scotland could continue to utilize the pound in the same way that countries like Panama and Ecuador currently utilize the American dollar without institutional responsibility, is not acceptable to the United Kingdom.

Another aspect of the debate that, in the view of the SNP, Scotland’s possession of extensive oil resources has not brought as much benefit to the country as an independent government might have been able to attain, has also not really had the success in public opinion that the SNP government had assumed. For while an April 2014 House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee Report was said to admit that “the Scottish economy would be likely to gain from North Sea Oil revenues” if it left Great Britain, others argue that in the present circumstances, the Scottish oil economy no longer possesses the potential for sustaining the level of productivity that it has had in the past.

Mr Salmond has therefore found himself somewhat on the back foot, no doubt surprised by the unanimity of the British political parties’ opposition to seeing Scotland independent, while still wanting to utilize parts of the British policymaking machinery, like the currency system, and national assets like the Health Service and the BBC.

Current polls show that there is, at present, more support for No campaign, the largest section of which is led by former Labour Chancelllor Darling with its slogan ‘Better Together.’ For this latter, when explained, insists on indicating to the Scottish population, a willingness on the part of the British political parties, to make concessions to greater autonomy for Scotland.

The public opinion polls following Monday’s debate between Darling and Salmond, will have indicated whether Salmond’s description of his opponent as a “visionless bore,” unable to think expansively about the benefits for a government of having all the tools of national independence, will have made an impact.

On the other hand, however, Salmond’s early concession of unwillingness to give up the British pound, while also insisting that adherence to the euro would not be particularly beneficial, seems to have indicated that his appeal for national independence for Scotland has the potential for leaving the new nation in a no-man’s land. The polls after the second debate will indicate whether he has been able to liquidate this image of uncertainty in the eyes of the Scottish people.