Undeterred by the result of the Scottish referendum announced early on September 19, Catalonia’s parliament, later that very day, authorised its president, by a vote of 106 to 28, to proceed with a referendum similar to the Scottish one on November 9.
Using the type of perverse logic at which politicians and spin doctors seem adept, the Catalan president, Artur Mas, declared that the Scottish referendum had “shown the way” for Catalonia’s independence movement. In this respect, he explained that Scotland’s ‘no’ vote was “not a setback” and that having the chance to vote was “the key point.” Indeed, this would be in keeping with the more nuanced position towards which Mr Mas seems to be leaning, as suggested in our editorial last Friday, when we pointed out that the pro-independence camp in Catalonia might be persuaded to shift the debate from secession to their “right to decide.” Perhaps Mr Mas’s logic is not so perverse after all.
Thus, when Mr Mas declares that the UK is sending “a powerful and strong message” to the world, “that if there is such a conflict elsewhere in the world you have the right way to try to resolve these differences,” he is sending his own clear message and challenge to the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, and Madrid; that is, Catalonia and Catalans must be allowed the right to determine their future relationship with the Spanish state.
Mr Rajoy and the central government are not only totally opposed to Catalan independence but also to any vote on the matter for fear that it might go the wrong way. Madrid simply does not want to entertain any discussion on a change to the status quo in Catalonia, which would open a veritable Pandora’s Box among Spain’s other autonomous regions and ultimately put the very coherence of the Spanish state at risk.
Nevertheless, Mr Mas is expected to sign tomorrow morning, with much fanfare, the decree convening the vote on November 9. Since a unilateral referendum on independence in Catalonia or in any other region in Spain is illegal under the Spanish constitution, the Catalans are calling the proposed vote, a “consultation.” But Madrid is not about to play along with Catalan semantics or separatist sentiments and the signature of the decree will trigger two key responses.
Mr Rajoy, who left for an official visit to China on Wednesday, is expected to convene an extraordinary meeting of the Spanish Council of Ministers on his return tomorrow night, which would, in turn, approve submitting the decree to Spain’s Constitutional Court and requesting the suspension of the consultation.
Since the case would only be registered officially by the court on Monday at the earliest, Mr Mas would succeed in having the consultation decree be legal for at least a few days, until such time that the court considers the case and suspends the vote in accordance with the constitution.
Stating, “If they think in Madrid that by using legal frameworks they can stop the will of the Catalan people, they are wrong,” Mr Mas, evidently believes that by signing the decree, in full knowledge of the law, he can set in motion an institutional campaign aimed at mobilising popular support before the vote is suspended, to keep Madrid on the back foot with regard to Catalan demands for greater autonomy.
British Prime Minister David Cameron took an almighty political gamble on the Scottish referendum and it was a close-run thing until the result vindicated his course of action. Yet, he will now have his work cut out to heal wounds arising from the bitterly fought campaign, to deliver on his promise of greater devolution of powers to Scotland away from Westminster and to placate English MPs who believe that England too deserves a measure of devolution. Undoubtedly, interesting times, if not wholesale constitutional change, lie ahead for the UK.
This is precisely what Mr Rajoy wants to avoid in Spain. But Mr Mas’s political brinkmanship will not make it easy for him. It is an intriguing game of political ‘chicken’ and the endgame is still not in sight.
