Trinidad’s elections

Though no date has been called, it is apparent that the election fever in Trinidad & Tobago is nearly at its boiling point. The polls are really, however, not giving a very decisive victory to either the Peoples National Movement (PNM) or the PP/United National Congress (UNC), though there seems to be a temptation on the part of some pollsters to give the benefit of the doubt to the latter. And the odds would seem to indicate that the residual vote contributed by the UNC’s partner in the last elections and in government does not now substantially exist, as many of its own supporters have appeared to drift away.

But the real surprise in the election campaign, so far, has been the revelations emanating from United States prosecutors, and no doubt, hardly coincidentally timed, to indicate incrimination of Mr Jack Warner, a key driver of the last PP electoral campaign in 2010, and widely attributed to be significant in its victory. This event has now virtually overshadowed the PP’s campaign as Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has had to find herself continually commenting on it as she takes to the electoral platform.

On the other hand, however, the central fact about the election is, of course, that although Warner’s situation momentarily dominates popular discussion, and he threatens to pour oil on the fire created around him to keep it burning not himself but the PP, it is unlikely that his fate, in the short period before election day, normally due soon after the last election date, May 24th, or his practical influence as a significant player in the sense of his last electoral performance, can now sway the UNC voters’ choices.

The polls appear to show that although the election is relatively close, the PP seems to be just sufficiently ahead of the People National Party (PNM) at this time, that it is unlikely that within the short space of time left, the PNM can catch up. There seems to be little movement in the polls at this time, and it does not appear that PNM leader Rowley has been able to organize anything dramatic to create a substantial positive shift in his party ratings.

The PNM, no doubt, has relied on criticism not so much of the government’s performance vis-à-vis the economy of the country, but rather on what it claims has been extensive corruption and general ministerial misbehaviour during the PP’s five year rule.

Secondly PNM supporters have witnessed a certain disintegration of the coalition’s ranks, both as the PP has certainly lost the enthusiastic support of the supporters of the Congress of the People (COP) led by Dr Winston Dookeran, from the leadership of which he stepped down in 2011. The COP has clearly lost the organizational coherence, and therefore strength, that it appeared to have five years ago. In turn, it has certainly not gained any substantial approval from the electorate, and in that sense the significance of a coalition in government over the last five years does not appear to be great.

Prime Minister Persad Bissessar’s UNC has now, it seems, to pursue the election on the basis of herself as the star figure of the administration and the party. It is undoubtedly the case that she now dominates her colleagues, in terms of public perception at least; and though the economy has not made substantial gains over the last five years, she is claiming that there is sufficient prosperity in the country, and that a significant number of investments have been found by the government, to keep the voters’ appreciation of the government’s economic performance going.

In that regard, while the two parties are relatively close together – some pollsters claim that there are, at best, only 5 seats too close to call, it would not appear that PNM leader Dr Rowley has made an any more significant impact on popular perception of himself, than he has had over the last few years. His, perhaps last-straw strategy of leading his members out of the House of Representatives, does not seem to have made any dramatic impact on the electorate; and his attempts to change the party’s representation in certain seats, including in his own Diego Martin area, seem to have been too late to push back any negative fall-out.

In the last few months, it has been fairly clear that the UNC had decided to make Rowley the centrepiece of its attack, a strategy that came to light through a strong personal attack by a government member, made in the House of Representatives. But by popular indications, this seems to have been deemed to have bordered on the vulgar, and did not seem to be appreciated by the general public.

On the other hand, however, there has been no significant indication of strong approval of the party’s pre-election strategy from the former PNM party leader, Patrick Manning, recovering from serious illness, but continuing to sit in the Parliament during its tenure. And there is little indication that the UNC itself is suffering from the lack of support, this time, from Jack Warner, eminently significant in 2010.

Opinion outside Trinidad & Tobago would probably find it difficult to assess the parties over the last five years. A visible prosperity has seemed to characterize the country’s economy, while Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar has herself been quite visible in regional affairs. Even as the pollsters find the election a close one, we can only wait and see during the short campaign period remaining.