Dear Editor,
While many are looking at the small photograph of what their party gets in the vote tally, I am going to look at the bigger picture. The bigger picture is ultimately what matters because it could concern the security of all Guyanese of all races and political stripes, no matter how divided they are at this moment. I sincerely hope former President Carter read the riot act to the PPP and coalition leaders.
It is fitting that Mr Ramotar took Dr Jagdeo to the meeting (or is it that Jagdeo took Ramotar?) with President Carter. Guyanese should remain calm even if there was evidence of electoral wrongdoing in some instances. If there was such evidence, the aggrieved should let the international observers make the call and issue the condemnation and refrain from taking matters into their own hands.
The problem with any kind of electoral disturbances is that it domestically will turn off vital crossover voters (Mixed and Amerindians), which will make it tougher for either of the two main parties to win a majority again. In addition, Amerindian and Mixed voters will abandon the PPP and the coalition, which in turn could hasten Mixed and Amerindian ethnic political party formation. This could create an even bigger headache for our political landscape.
If the PPP wins, it will be largely on the back of a demographically dwindling Indian voting bloc and a demographically expanding Amerindian bloc that is dwindling in terms of support for the PPP. If in five years it remains a two-party battle, the coalition will grow its base by virtue of a steady African population and growing Mixed and Amerindian populations and support, while the PPP will decline by virtue of a declining Indian population and declining Mixed and Amerindian support. The PPP knows it cannot win a two-horse race in five years unless it gains votes from African, Mixed and Amerindian voters. The coalition has the decided advantage in five years.
The problem with this scenario is that if the country does not remain calm, there will be flight from Guyana with the Indian population leaving at a faster and higher rate than any other ethnic group. Also, the Mixed and Amerindian populations will likely retreat significantly from political participation or will simply form their own political parties or will join to form their own political movement, further fracturing the political landscape. If we get four separate ethnic parties, the PPP is likely to win the election again in five years with a small minority of around one third of the votes, while the opposition parties may command two thirds of the votes in the National Assembly, thereby effectively bypassing the PPP presidency.
No government could function in this situation and definitely not an ethnic one. If there are three parties with the Mixed and Amerindians forming their own movement, the Mixed and Amerindian movement could win power in the post-electoral landscape depending on the shrinkage of the Indian population. Again, that government will likely face a Parliament dominated by a two-thirds opposition. In all of these scenarios, there is going to be a logjam and the country will stall as a result.
Yours faithfully,
M Maxwell
