Dear Editor,
Over a dozen pollsters (including some from Jamaica, Barbados, England, Canada and US) are conducting opinion polls to predict today’s general elections in Trinidad. Virtually all the polls gave different outcomes. Generally speaking polls conducted around the same time should produce similar results. But that has not been the case in Trinidad, not dissimilar to what happened in the 2007 elections. It is being referred to as the battle of the polls, which is not significantly different from the battle to form the government in what is a closely contested election based on the findings of a Nacta poll conducted by this writer.
There are 41 seats with the PP safe in 15 and PNM safe in 16 and ten seats very close which are marginals. A poll commissioned by the Guardian newspaper puts the opposition PNM well ahead to win the election leading in virtually all of the marginal seats. A poll commissioned by Express newspaper puts the race as a dead heat with the ruling PP leading by 2% and not offering a projection in seats. Several polls commissioned by the PNM and done by polling organizations from US, Canada and UK put the PNM winning a landslide. Similar PP commissioned polls also conducted by different pollsters from US, UK and Canada give the PP a landslide victory. Local pollsters are divided with a few giving the PP and a few giving the PNM a comfortable victory.
A UWI-conducted poll gives the PP 23/24 seats. The independent Nacta poll finds the PP leading the PNM by 4% in popular support and 21-18 seats with 2 seats up for grabs. The findings do not rule out a decisive victory (22 to 24 seats) for either party though the findings reveal a hotly contested election. The poll also finds competitive contests in fourteen seats (ten being defended by the PP and four currently held by the PNM) with the former likely to retain seven, neck and neck in two, and losing one to the PNM. The PNM is fending off stiff challenges in four seats and is projected to lose one to the PP. The prime ministerial contenders, Kamla Persad-Bissessar and Dr Keith Rowley, are safely ensconced in their respective (Indian and African) seats winning by larger majorities than in 2010. Nacta found the PP has lost support in several seats making it more hotly contested than in the last general election. One PNM commissioned poll has the PP losing a safe Indian seat, while one PP commissioned poll has the PNM losing two safe African seats. The Nacta poll found all three seats remaining in traditional hands as the electorate is not breaking from the tribalized pattern of voting that has been institutionalized since 1956. The PNM is confident of wresting a dozen seats from the PP and forming the government. Nacta gives it up to ten of those 12 seats.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
