DES MOINES, (Reuters) – As seven Republican presidential contenders squared off here for the final debate before voters begin winnowing the field, Donald Trump presided over his own, separate rally a mile away in front of a packed house of cheering supporters.
It would be hard to find a more ideal metaphor for the forces tearing asunder the Republican Party.
For months, Trump has chosen to operate in his own political universe, violating the conventional wisdom that governs presidential campaigns, thumbing his nose at conservative institutions ranging from the Fox News Channel to the National Review and advocating policies at odds with party orthodoxy.
And whether he wins the Iowa caucuses on Monday, Trump’s candidacy promises to continue to upend the established political order as the presidential race intensifies ahead of the Nov. 8 election. Most national opinion polls have him with more than 30 percent of the Republican primary electorate – and those voters are showing little sign of switching to anyone else.
“I think he will have made a permanent impact on the process,” Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and a 2012 presidential candidate, told Reuters. Trump’s campaign, he said, “is one of those great disruptions that reshapes everything.”
Tensions within the Republican Party between grassroots conservatives and the Washington establishment have been simmering since the Tea Party movement arose during President Barack Obama’s first term, catapulting presidential contenders Senators Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul to office, among others.
But Trump’s insurgent candidacy has carved new fissures into the party, splitting conservative talk-radio hosts, religious leaders, and Washington pundits, with some sounding the alarm while others implore the party to respond to the anger toward Republican incumbents among voters who are fueling Trump’s rise. The billionaire businessman has mounted his campaign on the notion of the fading American working-class, arguing they are under threat by both free trade deals favored by Republicans that encourage companies to send jobs overseas and by waves of illegal immigrants that work for low wages.
“People are upset. People believe that promises made have not been promises kept. There comes a point when you’ve had it,” said Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann, who has appeared at Trump rallies.
Trump’s candidacy threatens to scramble the Republican coalition built since the presidency of Ronald Reagan, one that worked to unite evangelical Christians and other social conservatives, economic conservatives, and military hawks behind a standard-bearer.
The New York real estate tycoon and former reality TV star does not check many of those boxes. He shocked evangelicals here when he told them he has never asked God for forgiveness and spends little time on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. He has threatened to slap tariffs on imported goods to protect American jobs and raise taxes on hedge-fund managers. He has decried the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and has sounded reluctant to deeply involve U.S. forces in the conflict in Syria.
