Dear Editor,
Our sister Caricom nation Jamaica goes to the polls on February 25 to choose a new parliament and government. Opinion polls put the ruling People’s National Party (PNP) out front to win the elections over the opposition Labour Party (JLP). There are other parties in the fray but they are not expected to make any showing in terms of seats. Unlike Guyana, people don’t vote ‘race’ although there are loyalist bases or traditional strongholds similar to the ones in Guyana.
There are 63 seats in the elected House that also has a nominated Senate (appointed by both the winning party and official opposition as in Trinidad and the rest of the anglophone Caricom region). Unlike Guyana, elected members are chosen under the first past the post system. In the last general election, the PNP won 42 of the 63 seats, trumping the then incumbent JLP which won the remaining 21 seats.
When I was in Jamaica in 2014, a majority of the people I interviewed at random were not pleased with PNP’s governance, although they were also displeased with JLP. But more people were supportive of the JLP than PNP putting the JLP ahead to wrest power from the government. A year ago, polls put the JLP ahead and my visit also affirmed a change in mood. But mid-last year, polls gave each party a 50-50 probability of winning. And the last opinion poll in December gave the PNP a four per cent advantage in popular support and a projected 43 seats to 20 seats.
Voters are turned off by all the parties and candidates. Voter turnout is decreasing and is likely to be near 50 per cent, so the diehards will determine the election. People told me they were fed up with the JLP and PNP. They see both as two sides of the same coin and say that both are failures and are uninterested in devolving power to the people. A whopping 49 per cent of the eligible voters told one pollster they do not intend to vote in the next general election. Traditional JLP supporters have demonstrated apathy because of leadership issues. Supporters of the PNP are more likely to vote.
According to one poll, incumbent PNP prime minister, Portia Simpson Miller, has greater acceptance among the party’s diehards than Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader Andrew Holness among his party’s diehards. The poll says the PNP is likely to get more private donations for its campaign because of party unity and economic ‘successes’, all of which gave the PNP a 55 per cent chance of winning re-election.
It will be an uphill, though not impossible, task for the JLP to pull off a victory. A swing of five per cent support could take the JLP to 34 seats according to analysts. Only 32 seats are needed to form the government. And the PNP, through what is considered as garrison support (safe seats from a loyalist base), has more safe seats than the JLP. The contests that put the PNP ahead in non-garrison seats are very close and upsets in several seats are not improbable.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
