Dear Editor,
The US elections are now over. Donald Trump and the Republican Party, (notwithstanding the fact that Hillary Clinton secured a larger slice of the popular vote) have won an unexpectedly, overwhelming majority of the very important Electoral College votes, thereby securing for Trump the presidency of the United States of America and in the process of the victory march entrenched the Republican Party’s control, not only of the executive, but also of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The massive margin of victory for Trump has left Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party devastated and in shambles. They are now asking and trying to work out what could have gone wrong in a campaign, which from all appearances they seemed, just prior to the opening of polling stations on elections day, to have locked down.
These historic election results have sent shock waves throughout America and the world. Millions of people are asking the question ‒ what does Trump’s victory mean for America and the rest of the world? I submit that the political reality is that the world has to live with President elect Donald Trump, and he will, after his inauguration on January 20, 2017, have to find a way to live with the world. Winning for him, will prove to be much easier than governing. President elect Trump will very quickly discover that in a changing dynamic, world leaders will not readily succumb to US leadership threats and bullyism.
At this juncture one of the issues that is engaging my attention is what are the political lessons that Guyana can learn from the US elections? And in what ways would these elections affect our national interest? Before trying to answer these questions, let me say that no two countries are the same. Each has its own peculiarities. However, human societies also have many things in common. Added to this we live in a globalized world where ideas and influences know no national borders. This point becomes even more important when it is applied to third world countries with inconsequential and insignificant technical/military defences.
This is a list of some factors which I believe dominated the political landscape in the run up to the US elections: (1) the hatred of large sections of the masses for the political elite and their financial allies, their domination, and greed; (2) the popular perception that there is need for change; (3) the state of the economy and availability of jobs; (4) internal security and the emergence of IS and other radical/extremist forces around the world; (5) race relations; (6) class contradictions; (7) immigration issues; and (8) the fear factor inherent in the exaggeration of likely violent Islamist threats/actions against US citizens/properties in the US and around the world.
Where does Guyana stand/compare in relation to the above? (a) We have growing alienation of the masses with the ‘system’. For decades the masses have been questioning the political and economic infrastructure and its negative effects on the country. The majority of the people in Guyana are the poor and the powerless; (b) in so far as the issue of the economy and job creation is concerned Guyana still counts a burgeoning unemployment youth brigade who are frustrated by unfolding developments and who see no light at the end of the tunnel; (c) the deepening internal security challenges/the escalating crime situation and the public perception on the matter; (d) race/ethnic insecurity; (e) class contradictions; (f) the continuing popular demand for ‘real change’ that had resulted in the defeat of the PPP/C in the 2015 elections.
Looking at these factors there are many similarities. This is not to say that they will play out in the same way in all respects in Guyanese elections as they did in the just concluded US elections.
There are a number of inferences that can be drawn from the above. The US now joins a number of European countries where the masses are rebelling against the old order at the ballot box. This is due to the failure of the system to deliver on economic and social benefits. Guyana is not immune to this global political development. We have to be careful since we have been struggling with the challenges of our colonial structured economy and an inadequate political system for more than half a century. We have long reached the point where the contradictions in the economic and political system have become counterproductive to the advancement of the nation. President Obama came to power 8 years ago on the banner of “change”. Many of his supporters at home and abroad interpreted change to mean “profound change”. This was not to be. Instead his presidency, rather than pulling down the ‘old order’ gave a new lease of life and legitimacy to the system at a point when the contradictions demanded decisive action. However, credit must be given to the fact that Obama and his Rainbow Coalition created history by (1) becoming the first black man to be elected President of the United States; and (2) against all odds he became a two term President and ended his term with one of the highest approval ratings of a departing US President. By 2016 Obama and the Democratic Party became indistinguishable from the old order (establishment) and became part of the problem rather than the solution. On the economy, he inherited a bankrupt country reeling from the collapse of the banking system. In 8 years he was able to successfully turn around the economy, in the process, achieving a 2% growth rate and one of the highest job creation rates in recent times. It is therefore surprising that in the face of these achievements Hilary Clinton and the Democratic Party were unable to pull together the requisite votes for victory.
In Guyana the APNU+AFC coalition government should take note. We came to power on the banner of change. Our victory cannot be compared with Obama’s victories, since we only have a one seat majority. Have we delivered the change our supporters had expected? The answer is no. There are good reasons why this was not possible. However, we still have more than three years to correct things. As demonstrated in the US elections and in Europe we see that masses, who suffered from prolonged economic and social crisis, are rejecting the notion that they have to wait again for trickledown economics to work.
They want relief now not later. This is the political challenge facing the ruling coalition in Guyana. President David Granger has to be mindful of the fact that his government might succeed in restoring the damaged economy which he inherited, but this may not be sufficient to get his coalition over the line in 2020 if we fail to give our supporters something tangible to fight for. In the context of Guyana this is not easy for the government, but we have to find a way.
It is ironic that one of Trump’s slogan during the US elections was “We have to take back our country”. This was also one of the coalition slogans in the 2015 elections. But in countries with historical racial problems this appeal is a double edged sword, since it can be construed as being a call made in ethnic terms rather than a legitimate appeal for people power. In the US elections only the naïve will deny the race factor. It was in part a white-lash. On the other hand, African American alienation led to insufficient support for Clinton. Additionally, Hispanic self- preservation reflexes led to a splitting of their votes. At least 20% of Hispanics voted for Trump in the face of his unprecedented threats to their communities. Trump and the Republican Party’s fear tactics succeeded in forcing some Hispanic interest groups to jump ship in an effort to save their skins. This was real politics at work. How does Guyana stand in this regard? Our Indigenous communities have long mastered the art of ‘playing’ the political parties. They are adept at sharing their votes always on the lookout for the highest bidders. This is how they defend/preserve their interest as a minority. In Guyana like the US we are yet to come to grips with the challenges that are posed by the race/class contradictions in our society.
Given the length of this letter I will not attempt to address here at length the second question about the possible negative effects of Trump/Republican victory on Guyana’s national interest. Suffice to say it lies in the area of our border, and the potential threat posed to Guyana’s sovereignty by Venezuela’s aggression. And our drive to be an oil producing state? It is no secret that in Venezuela many in the political opposition historically have had close political and business relations with interest groups and leaders in the Republican Party. How this will play out in terms of Guyanese national interest is difficult to predict at the moment.
In closing, I wish to say that President David Granger’s speedy congratulations to President elect Donald Trump is an indication that his mind is engaging these new realities.
Yours faithfully,
Tacuma Ogunseye
