Decision Rule 2: No overall economic justification for a state-owned, controlled and operated oil refinery

Introduction

Last week’s column was aimed at walking readers who are unfamiliar with economic feasibility studies, through the PowerPoint presentation by Pedro Haas of Hartree Partners, on the feasibility study for a state-owned Guyana refinery. This study was conducted for the Ministry of Natural Resources (MoNR). While the previous column focused on the methods of analysis, today’s focuses on the results. Further, I utilize these results in support of Decision Rule 2, which provides guidance for decision-making as regard a state-owned local oil refinery.

The previous column had also indicated that, the prime purpose of economic feasibility studies is to give guidance on whether to proceed or not to proceed with a project. Certain standard measures are obtained to aid decision-making. These derive from the process of isolating, and then estimating, all costs (present and future) associated with the project and, similarly all benefits (present and future) expected to flow from the project. If the project is considered economically-feasible, then the benefits should exceed the costs, over the defined project period. In this formulation, all costs mean literally every cost, whether ongoing costs, operating costs, fixed costs, or variable costs. Similarly, all benefits refer literally to every benefit, including profit, performance benefits from the project, cost-avoidance benefits, as well as all other tangible and intangible benefits. Typically, these benefits and costs are estimated on the basis of several well-established economic techniques.