A few days ago, the Inter-national Energy Agency reported that oil production in the US was undergoing extraordinary growth. The OECD-related body for net importers of oil said that the increase meant that US “production could equal global demand growth” largely because of its rapidly expanding shale output. This meant that US production would probably reach 11m bpd by late 2018, outstripping Saudi Arabia and offsetting OPEC-led supply cuts aimed at increasing energy prices.
It is the background against which a potentially seismic shift in US policy towards the Western hemisphere is being considered. Although it will require the agreement of President Trump, it will likely involve Washington imposing sanctions on the export of Venezuelan oil, Mexico considering with others a PetroCaribe type regional oil programme, and the US seeking to export oil and gas to Latin America and the Caribbean while promoting support for new forms of partnership.
