The stakes for the Alliance for Change (AFC) will be high as it meets with its coalition partner A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) this week to review the pivotal Cummingsburg Accord that underpinned their victory at the 2015 general elections.
Sources from both sides described different expectations for the upcoming negotiations to Stabroek News. While it is the third time that they will be meeting, Stabroek News was told that the two sides are still discussing “modalities” for their meetings. Nonetheless, party insiders from both the AFC and APNU said that the real test of compromise will come during discussions for the prime minister and other ministerial positions.
One source indicated that a key part of the negotiations will focus on the slashing of the number of ministerial and parliamentary positions for the AFC in exchange for that party’s retention of the prime ministerial candidate slot for the upcoming general elections. The AFC has been adamant that the slot must be retained by the party.
“It is unrealistic, even to a political novice that the AFC could get the same terms as the last accord. Quite frankly, I believe that they will have to be prepared to give up a number of their current ministerial positions in exchange for that prime minister post that they so desperately are pushing,” an APNU source close to the process told Stabroek News.
However, AFC executives believe that the party is in a strong position to ask for the same or even better terms compared to the last accord, which will expire in March next year.
“We are going into the discussions in good faith, regardless of what you hear. We in the AFC still believe that we can get the same terms as the last accord. Many persons say that we don’t have bargaining power because of our performance at the LGE [local government elections], but the LGE and the general elections are not the same. Is APNU willing to risk our numbers and go it alone? Look at the margin at the last elections and tell me if APNU can win alone?” one AFC source said.
“Yes, we are holding to all the terms, and yes, we believe we can get it or even better. We will still be able to make seats on our own if we go alone. We are not shifting that [Minister of Public Security Khemraj Ramjattan] will be our prime ministerial candidate because it is what the party wants and voted for and we are a democratic party,” the source added.
It has been posited that the most delicate part of the upcoming talks would be a strong view in some parts of APNU and the PNCR that the AFC should not retain the right to name a prime ministerial candidate given its showing at the 2018 LGE and the view that the PPP/C has clawed back the support that the AFC had brought to the coalition in 2015. The number of seats in Parliament assigned to the AFC is also likely to be an issue on the table.
The two parties had agreed last month to revise the Cummingsburg Accord as part of preparations for the upcoming general and regional elections. The two sides have exchanged documents in preparation for the meeting. The process, which is expected to be completed within four weeks, will be concluded by teams including the General Secretary of each party.
The AFC team is led by the General Secretary David Patterson while the APNU team is led by their General Secretary Joseph Harmon. The two sides have met twice since last month and are expected to have another meeting this week.
But sources said that no “actual negotiations” have yet begun. Asked what discussions have been completed, one source said that it was “basic formatting and rules for the talks.”
The AFC’s February 14, 2015 accord with APNU was seen as the key factor in the defeat of the PPP/C at the May 2015 general elections. However, political analysts say that the hardliners within APNU – particularly its main component, the PNCR – felt that the AFC had gotten disproportionately high benefits from the Accord and that this had to be reeled in.
The key features of the Accord were that the AFC would have the prime ministerial position in the government and 12 seats in Parliament. The AFC had also been unhappy with its allocation of seats at the historic 2016 LGE and had pressed at various points for an adjustment in this area. Matters came to a head at the 2018 LGE when APNU threw down the gauntlet and had the AFC contest the polls on its own in an apparent bid to have it show its real worth.
