Road Map: Guyana’s imminent explosive petroleum earnings and its “fiscal metric”

Introduction

Last week’s column offered a summary outline of my Strategic Road Map for “getting and spending” Guyana’s anticipated petroleum revenues. To reinforce that presentation, I offer today a simple schematic depiction of the Road Map. The getting and spending dimensions are displayed in separate Schedules. Both Schedules are rudimentary in the sense that the goal of achieving Guyana’s transformation is represented linearly! The revenue getting Road Map is depicted in Schedule 1, and its Guideposts are discussed in the sequence indicated. The first of these, “Fiscal rules of the production Sharing Agreement (PSA),” is considered today. The others follow in the sequence displayed.

Schedule 2 similarly depicts a schematic “roll-out” of five priorities for spending Government Take (introduced last week). These spending priorities are addressed after the revenue Schedule is completed. Although both Schedules are admittedly rudimentary, they are not to be confused with either a simple “to-do list of actions” or the “detailed requirements” for a national plan.

Guidepost I: Projected Government Revenues

I have discussed the fiscal rules of Guyana’s PSA at length in the columns of Volume 3. These appeared successively during the period December 3rd, 2017 to April 15th, 2018, and again on July 12th, 2018. I do not intend to re-litigate this earlier presentation on Government Take. Guidepost I’s main intent is to establish the percentage/ratio of Government Take, which the Road Map assumes. This is pivotal for estimating Government revenue yield…..

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