Impact of COVID-19

On May 1st, de facto Minister of Public Health, Volda Lawrence expressed exasperation at the rise in the number of COVID-19 cases and the threat that this posed to the general population.

In one of her ministry’s regular updates, Ms Lawrence said “On day 9 with 6 confirmed cases we began implementing measures with the closure of all international airports. On day 24 when another 33 cases were confirmed, the Ministry of Public Health instituted the curfew, the rotation policy, the stay at home and work from home policies as well as the closing of several businesses.  We are now at day 50 and we are right where we began with another 43 cases, a 110% increase in less than one month. I want to ask you my fellow Guyanese what is it that you want? It’s obvious that you are not taking the COVID-19 pandemic seriously. How else can we explain a 110% increase in positive cases in less than a month”?

Interspersed among these remarks by Ms Lawrence were several pictures of persons in overcrowded hospitals and coffins ostensibly of COVID-19 victims.

Being at the centre of the campaign against COVID-19 it may not be readily recognised by Ms Lawrence that she and her ministry should be accountable for the rise in the cases. In the first instance, when the presumptive `Patient Zero’, Ratna Baboolall was finally confirmed – days after she should have been tested – the ministry evinced no urgency in containing the spread of the virus.  Passengers on her flight were not contacted until days later. It is yet unclear whether any of those passengers tested positive for COVID-19. Moreover, her community was not immediately focused on for expanded testing.

The fact that the closure of airports on day nine did not prevent an escalation in confirmed cases by 76 after the passage of 50 days should have been the clearest evidence to Ms Lawrence that community spread of the virus was well underway and is likely still so today.  The whole purpose of the lockdown of the airports was to ensure that no new cases could be imported while a relentless campaign was waged on the ground to identify infections and limit the spread of this readily transmissible menace. Though having around 700 COVID-19 test kits in its possession in the early stages of the virus’s appearance here, the ministry applied too-rigid criteria for testing and few tests were done. If indeed Ms Baboolall was `Patient Zero’ and her community had been possibly exposed through various means, including attendance at a wake, then the ministry needed to do aggressive testing to identify, isolate and treat any positive cases. This was not done. It boggles the mind that persons  at risk of contracting the virus – aside from her immediate family –  would not have been contacted immediately after her death for testing.

It is also possible that Ms Baboolall was not `Patient Zero’ and that the affliction had arrived here earlier. If so, then the ministry faced and still faces a serious challenge in undertaking epidemiological investigations of what has transpired. At least one of the early fatal cases who had not readily gotten assistance from the ministry’s hotline to be tested had travelled to various parts of the country.

All of those nodes of possible infection spread required aggressive contact tracing by the ministry and local government bodies, testing, isolation and treatment. It is a quite simple formula but appears to have evaded the ministry’s awareness.

Thousands of other test kits have since been acquired through the kind agency of PAHO/WHO and more are being mobilised. Even though there may be a high portion of negatives to tests done, the Ministry has no choice but to rapidly expand testing in the communities where infections have been confirmed. While the criteria for testing have been belatedly enlarged and mobile units  have been enlisted, the ministry’s plan is still hazy.

Quite inexplicably, on Saturday the ministry did not report a change in the number of tests done. It needs to explain what happened and whether the National Public Health Reference Laboratory is operating at optimal capacity.

While containing the spread of the virus, restoring the health of those afflicted and protecting and supporting health workers must be the number one priority, the growing economic toll on the livelihoods of thousands of private sector workers must also be considered and addressed. Hundreds of businesses which are not classified as essential have had to close or severely limit their operations. This month-long lockdown of businesses has now been extended by a further month to June 3rd.

Anecdotal information and data gathered informally by this newspaper suggests that some businesses – particularly in the medium to large scale  have kept their employees on payroll, while others have reduced pay and days of work and others have sent home employees without pay. There is real pain in communities across the country as a result. Many of those affected fall into the category of the self-employed and have no other options available. Hinterland communities are particularly vulnerable as they face higher prices and limitations on the transport of essential goods.

The Ministry of Business is meant to be doing a survey to determine the impact of COVID-19 on enterprises and  their employees. Together with information from the business chambers, a clear picture needs to be put together on the extent of losses to households. It is untenable and unbearable for households to lose months of income and be expected to remain stable.

Providing aid to these families in a structured manner is now limited by the tenuous nature of this government. A caretaker government with little legitimacy since December 21st 2018 is now clutching at every possible inanity as its agents try to prevent a final, lawful declaration of a result nine weeks after general elections. Having no standing and with no parliament in existence, this administration is in no position to deliver to beleaguered citizens but must yet be held accountable. Ad interim, lines of communications should open up between the government and the opposition on the contours of a relief package so that immediately after the elections crisis is resolved there can be cross-party support for targeted assistance to the families and communities in dire need.