Recently a new variant of the Covid-19 virus was discovered in Brazil. It originated in Amazonas state, which while it is not contiguous with Guyana is nevertheless too close for comfort. The capital of that state is Manaus, whose health service is in crisis and whose hospitals ran out of oxygen last week because they were overwhelmed with cases. On Friday the Brazilian Air Force flew in emergency oxygen supplies, while according to Reuters doctors were using their own vehicles for transporting patients. Relatives of the sick were trying to buy oxygen on the black market as patients were being taken off ventilators when the oxygen became exhausted.
The agency reported health authorities as conceding that oxygen had run out in some hospitals and that intensive care wards were so full that many patients were being airlifted to other states. Doctors were reported as saying that oxygen was being shared between patients, alternating every ten minutes. Brazil which already had a problem with the virus and was second only to the US in terms of Covid-related fatalities, has been put under further strain with this new variant, which, like the Kent and the South African varieties, is said to be more infectious than the original. President Bolsonaro was nevertheless his customary dismissive self: “I should be at the beach right now,” he was reported as saying.
Now this is Brazil, which has reasonable intensive-care capacity, a military transportation capability to fly oxygen where it is needed, the ability to move patients from one area in crisis to another which is under less stress, a bureaucratic structure which at least at the most basic level is able to organise a response, and a competent corps of medical personnel in the hospitals. Imagine an emergency of that scale (allowing for population differences, etc) occurring in Guyana. It would be a catastrophe.
But we would be behaving like the proverbial ostrich if we imagined that this particular variant could not arrive here. Mr Kid James of the South Rupununi District Council said last week the variant was creating havoc in a Brazilian town close to Region Nine, but exactly to which town he was referring was not made clear. If it was Manaus, then that is no more than we know already, but if he was making reference to Boa Vista, about a three-hour drive from the Takutu Bridge, then that would be more concerning. And since it is in Manaus (where it probably originated), it will eventually reach Boa Vista on the Rio Branco, from where it might be transmitted to Bom Fin, which really is close to Lethem on the other side of the Takutu River.
Minister of Health Dr Frank Anthony acknowledged on Friday that the new Brazil variant could result in a rapid increase in cases here, and it was with this in mind he said that land borders would remain closed, save for the limited exchanges of supplies which was done under the supervision of the health authorities on both sides. “We are very concerned and because of its close proximity to us we must pay attention to that. Our land borders have been closed for some time. The bridge over the Takutu River has been closed so movement is restricted,” he was quoted as saying.
Our borders are notoriously difficult to close, something which he did tacitly admit, although he said the Joint Services had been ‘working hard’ to cover all areas, and the Brazilian authorities had also been patrolling. It should be noted that people had still been finding their way across the Takutu during the rainy season when the water was high, so the situation could only deteriorate now we were in the dry season and this impediment was no longer there.
The UK and South African variants of the virus are much easier to exclude, because they will penetrate Guyana through the official ports of entry which can be controlled, but some portions of our frontiers, particularly those to the west, are cowboy country. It is hard to see the Brazilian variant not ending up in Venezuela, for example, if it is not there already, and that would constitute an even bigger problem for us.
As of December last year, the Region with the highest number of Covid-19 cases was Four, but then Four is also the most populous of the Regions. After that came One, followed by Seven, Three, Ten, Nine, Six, Eight, Two and Five, in that order. Absolute numbers, however, are actually not very helpful; more meaningful is the ratio of cases to size of population. Figures available for that date back to November, and there have been some changes since then according to reports, but they are probably still a meaningful guide even now.
On that basis the Region with the highest number of cases per head of population is Region One, which is followed by Region Seven. Then come Regions Nine and Eight. It is only after this that Region Four finds a place, along with Region Ten. The first thing to be noted about this is that the first four places in the list are taken by mining Regions, which also happen to be our primary border Regions.
Where Region Nine specifically is concerned, the Minister was quoted as saying, “Since after Christmas the village council have been lax on ensuring that people adhere to what measures we have had in place and we have had seen an increase in cross border travel and that is worrying … we have to go back to the bordering community to let them know what is happening.” For his part Mr Kid James confirmed the Minister’s assertion about the increased cross-border travel in some Rupununi communities, although how big a role the village councils can play in preventing this is perhaps a moot point.
In any event, Mr James said that the South Rupununi Development Council was hoping to have an emergency meeting so they could discuss the situation. The Ministry of Health should pay attention to what they have to suggest.
Apart from leaving the borders ‘closed’, Minister Anthony said that the health authority in Region Nine had been alerted, “and they have been on the lookout for any changes in the epidemiological pattern.” He was also reported as saying there were test kits in Region Nine and that samples were sent out regularly to be tested in Georgetown.
None of this sounds particularly radical, and seems to be a continuation of what was in place in any case. At the bottom of a considerable portion of the cross-border travel is mining, and leaving the special case of the lawless Cuyuni aside, Region Nine, with its open back door, provides the easiest access for miners, even those in some other mining regions. During the early phase of the pandemic when Region Nine was particularly affected, there was a call to take mining and mining-related activities off the list of Essential Services which are exempt from Covid restrictions. Neither the past government nor this one was prepared to entertain this.
At an earlier stage the Minister had told the media that “We must balance the COVID-19 pandemic with economic recovery.” A lot of countries have been trying to do that. The nations which have done best during the pandemic, however, are those which took stringent measures very early on which kept it in check, a move that then created some space for economic recovery. In the current situation the government cannot take the risk of allowing the new Brazil variant to take hold here.
If this variant is more transmissible, many people will become infected, said the Minister, and that means in turn that there will be a higher percentage of persons admitted to hospital and to the ICU. “These are going to be the challenges if this variant circulates in our country,” he concluded. No one will dispute that. It just requires the government to be bold for once in addressing the threat.
