If the jolt from the Ministry of Health on Saturday that another nine deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 doesn’t shatter the complacency that is evident in Georgetown and other parts of the country, it is unclear what else will.
Just hours after announcing that three more persons had died including a 34-year-old man from Region Four, the ministry announced that six more persons had been confirmed to have succumbed to COVID-19 based on results received from polymerase chain reaction testing. Of these six, one was in the 40’s and three in the 50’s underlining the trend that the virus, because of the possible presence here of a more transmissible and virulent strain was increasingly striking mortal blows at a younger cohort.
Guyana’s death toll has barrelled to 325 at the time of writing and per capita is far worse than Trinidad and Tobago’s 203 fatalities with its much larger population. In large measure, Guyana’s death toll has been pumped up by reckless behaviour of citizens in all parts of the country and ineffective action by two governments. Each day the acts of irresponsibility have been on display by citizens: holding of weddings, parties and casual liming where the virus is easily spread and eventually mowing down those who have underlying conditions or are otherwise at risk. Undoubtedly, many who have died have contracted the virus from those who didn’t take precautions.
On the other side of the coin, ineffective actions by the government and woeful enforcement have driven up the death tally and the spread of virus. This was strikingly demonstrated by the government’s recent decision to allow the reopening of betting shops and casinos. Where is the common sense in the government? How could betting shops and casinos be allowed to reopen when they would clearly be efficient purveyors of this deadly disease?
Despite the recent weeks of steep rises in the number of deaths and swingeing increases in the amount of COVID cases, the government here remains determined not to take stronger measures to limit gatherings even while the Trinidadian government has embarked on another round of sector shutdowns as a new wave of cases has hit the twin-island republic. It is also worth pointing out that Trinidad’s airports remain closed even though Guyana reopened its in October last year. After the first wave of cases here there was understandably a clamour for the reopening of the economy and the PPP/C government has acted on this. The government, however, cannot be oblivious to the reality that where the situation takes a turn for the worse – as it clearly has here and in many other countries – that there has to be a proportionate response even if that means locking down some sectors or limiting gatherings in and out of the workplace.
The action that should be taken by the government depends on the drivers of the current wave of infections. On this question there is very little epidemiological information. Are the new cases primarily linked to super-spreader events which continue to be staged in defiance of COVID regulations? Are they linked to arrivals at the international airports? Are they linked to public transport? Or are they connected to the hundreds who have been permitted to self-isolate without much supervision? If the government has this information it would better enable it to prescribe stronger measures to be enforced by the COVID-19 task force.
The government’s measures and enforcement response however appear to be geared to appeasing the private sector and devoid of science-based planning or organisation. It is scandalous that the Ministry of Health has not been able to test for variants in recent months when that is absolutely essential to determining how the virus is behaving and whether more resources have to be deployed to areas where the variant is present.
The only upside at the moment is the availability of vaccines which would help citizens to stave off the virus and significantly reduce the prospect of hospitalisation even if the virus succeeded in causing infection. The Ministry already has on hand enough vaccines to fully inoculate 130,000 persons. Its vaccination total is now approaching 160,000 which in simple terms means it has begun to use some of its second doses to continue inoculations. This week the ministry is projecting that it will receive 98,400 vaccines – 60,000 of Sputnik V that it paid for and 38,400 AstraZeneca shots under the COVAX facility. This would be a significant injection which would allow the full vaccination of 49,200 persons. Once these vaccines arrive Guyana will have sufficient jabs for the full vaccination of 179, 200 persons but would still have a long way to go as herd immunity would require at least 500,000 persons inoculated with two shots.
The only known way to exit the COVID-19 crisis is to move towards herd immunity and the benefits of this have been increasingly seen in a number of countries. Taking the vaccine will enable not only personal protection but of one’s immediate family and the community.
