Dr Clive Thomas

Introduction               For the purposes of today’s column, I shall be revisiting my much earlier evaluation of development analysis and policy, along with my assessment of concrete proposals and studies by the Authorities aimed at evaluating the need for constructing a state-run or joint venture, JV, oil refinery that is designed to contribute value added to Guyana’s crude oil exportation.

Introduction In today’s column I expand on the reasoning I gave last week as to why I am urging that, there is no sound economic theorizing in calls for Guyana to establish a state-owned oil refinery to process (and thereby add value) to its crude oil production, at this stage of development of the country’s emerging oil and gas sector.

Introduction As I advanced last week, clearly my proposal for the authorities to establish a national oil company, NOC, based on NRGI precepts, does not ipso facto constitute a recommendation favouring the creation of a state-owned and or joint venture, JV, oil refinery. 

Introduction In last week ‘s column I had referenced the circumstance whereby, following sporadic social media and press reports ascribing to the Authorities an intent to build modular oil refineries, I have been encouraged by readers to pursue two  separate but linked tasks.

Introduction Last week’s column, the first in 2023, was also the last in an extended 14-part series that focused on my re-visiting Guyana Government Take and its officially pronounced hydrocarbon resources.

Introduction Today’s column concludes this 14-part series devoted to re-visiting Guyana Government’s Take ratio and estimates of its of recoverable hydrocarbons.

Introduction Today’s column serves three main objectives. First, to address Guyana’s creaming curve, which dramatizes its remarkable exploration successes in locating Guyana’s hydrocarbons resources, found largely offshore to date.

Introduction In today’s column I shall address, respectively, the second [USGS Assessment] and third lines [bullish expert opinions] which underpin my own “strongly bullish stance” on Guyana’s likely recoverable petroleum resources that I have assumed to hold over the long run.

Introduction While the fiscal rules of Guyana’s PSA indicate the sources of its oil revenues yield,  the finds/discoveries indicate the quantity, quality and trend in petroleum reserves accumulation and its reporting.

Introduction Thus far, this revisit of the ten individual published estimates of the Guyana Government Take ratios conducted by five separate bodies have highlighted four factors that immediately stand out.

Introduction As part of the revisit of my  previous evaluation of publicized modelled calculations of Guyana Government Take ratios, I had observed last  week that, just over two years ago [August 2020] the Inter-American Development Bank, IADB, and also much more recently, in August of this year, 2022,  Rystad Energy, published modelled calculations of Guyana Government Take along with projections of Guyana Government revenue flows and related operational and investment matters,  over a decade and more going forward to 2025-7 and beyond into the 2030s.

Introduction Today’s column begins the wrap up of my presentation related to Guyana Government Take.

Introduction In today’s column I report on the results of modeled projections of the Guyana Government Take ratio.

Introduction In today’s column, the focus of this intended re-visit of my previous evaluations of the Guyana Government Take and Reported Hydrocarbon Reserves shifts its attention to my reporting of published measures of the Take ratio for Guyana.

Introduction Today’s column is the fourth in my recently introduced sub-series of columns on the topic of Guyana Government Take and Reported Reserves This is due to the private urgings of several readers who have been pressing me to re-visit my previous columns on this topic.

Introduction While as indicated last week, over the years Production Sharing Agreements, PSAs, have given rise to well documented generic critiques of their processes, as hinted towards the end of that column, they have also proved to be from the very outset dynamic and even disruptive, as a novel social construct, to the then ruling order of transnational crude oil exploration, development, production, and marketing legal contracts.

Introduction As readers are aware, I usually indicate well beforehand the topics I intend to address over an extended period, going forward.

Introduction Four weeks ago, I had substituted my scheduled re-visit of the Buxton Proposal and its recommendations, for a more comprehensive appraisal of the premier position, which I have accorded to the goal of poverty reduction in the spending of Guyana’s expected windfall petroleum revenues and earnings.

Introduction Last week’s column used the World Bank’s systematic country diagnostic, SCD, of Guyana, to unravel the embedded obstacles to the country’s lack of inclusive development along with the grim persistence of poverty up to the advent of its windfall oil finds in 2015.

Introduction Two  remarkable reports on Guyana were separately published by two leading international organizations towards the end of the first year of Guyana’s First Oil.