Dr Clive Thomas

Introduction Today’s column starts my review of the Government of Guyana’s, GoG’s, natural gas to shore proposal, as prioritized in the 2021 National Budget.

Introduction The 2021 National Budget identifies a successful local content policy, LCP, as required for converting projected petroleum windfall revenues into sustained economic differentiation and growth; combined with economic diversification and development.

Introduction Today’s discussion addresses the notion of Dutch Disease. This is put forward in the 2021 National Budget as the most dangerous pitfall the Authorities will have to navigate as the country pursues economic growth and development with macroeconomic balance.

Introduction – Core Objectives As modern national budgets tend to do, Guyana’s 2021 Budget identifies upfront six core objectives, which it sets about to achieve.

Introduction As indicated last week, starting with today’s column, I shift focus away from offering readers data and analytics rooted in instructional guidance on the political economy of Guyana’s emerging oil and gas.

Introduction Today’s column offers a few general reflections on the experiences of the 2020 crisis and its impact on Guyana’s newly established petroleum sector, now that we are into Q2, 2021 and, temporally at   least, that year is firmly in the rear-view mirror.

Introduction Thus far I have argued that the 2020 crisis delivered a huge setback to Guyana’s forecasted 86% GDP growth rate modeled by the IMF for that year, in Q4 2019.

Introduction Today’s column recaps the details, which inform my strongly bullish outlook on Guyana’s truly world class hydrocarbons potential.

Introduction Last week’s column explained the enigma of, on the one hand, repeated striking downward revisions to Guyana’s expected real GDP growth for 2020 (initially set at 85% by the IMF and Government of Guyana, GoG in Q4, 2019).

Introduction As the above title suggests, today’s column indicates a substantive shift in focus away from the “infant state” of Guyana’s oil and gas sector (even though this still remains the case) towards its evolving profile in coming decades.

Introduction My long-standing recommendation to establish a National Oil Company, NOC, intentionally rejects the notion of linking this policy recommendation with the establishment of a state-owned (or joint venture, state-private) downstream “oil refinery”.

Introduction Today’s column addresses the third and final policy choice that I anticipate Guyana will have to make in this decade.

Introduction Following last week, today’s column continues to provide recommendations in regard to the  three crucial key policy choices that I identify, which will be confronting the Government of Guyana, GoG, in the coming decade.

Introduction Since Guyana’s first commercial oil discovery in 2015, I have steadfastly urged a “strongly bullish outlook” on its potential petroleum resources.

Introduction Today’s column shifts focus from determining direct impacts on oil production, price, government revenue and their consequential effects on GDP arising from the 2020 general crisis (as I have portrayed this process) on Guyana’s infant oil and gas sector towards gauging impacts, going  forward, on the leading transnational producer grouping in this sector: ExxonMobil and partners. 

Introduction Table 1 shows various estimated GDP growth rates data for Guyana in 2020.

Introduction In today’s column I continue my summary appraisal of the adverse impacts of the 2020 general crisis, as I have defined this phenomenon, on Guyana’s infant oil and gas sector.

Introduction In today’s column I begin my appraisal of revealed adverse impacts of the 2020 global general crisis, as I have specified this term and its footprints, on the performance of Guyana’s infant oil and gas sector last year and going forward into the future.

Introduction In today’s column I continue with the summary recap and overview of my effort to evaluate the impact of the 2020 global general crisis on Guyana’s infant oil and gas sector.

Introduction At this juncture, with the coming to a close of 2020, I believe it would be helpful for readers if at this juncture I proceed to undertake a recap on where I am in this rather lengthy analysis of the impact of the 2020 global general crisis (as I have defined this process) on Guyana’s emerging oil and gas sector.