Budget 2009: From ‘voodoo’ to ‘make-believe’ economics ‘Voodoo economics’ Economics is essentially a discipline based on commonsensical principles and ideas.
Taking their toll: external shocks and the Guyana economyIn last week’s column I had introduced the first of eleven economic shocks/challenges that rocked the Guyana economy in the second half of 2008.
The worst-case scenario: Economic shocks in the 2nd half of 2008Recap In last week’s column I considered three major economic shocks/challenges which rocked Guyana’s economy during the first half of 2008.
Economic challenges in the first half of 2008: Rising food, fuel prices and the bio-fuels bubble In this week’s column I shall begin a review of Guyana’s economic performance during 2008, principally through evaluating the impact of three major shocks and economic challenges which rocked the economy during the first half of that year.
2008: Shocks to the Guyana economy and its prospects for 2009 Shifting gears This week I am shifting gears and stating a new discussion on the performance of the Guyana economy during 2008 and its prospects for the year ahead.
What will happen to the region’s economy? In the space of a few months the bursting of the private housing market bubble in the United States has produced a world-wide credit crunch, financial crisis and economic recession, all of staggering proportions.
How are the global economic reverses channelled to Caricom economies? Catching cold! As the saying goes: when the rich developed economies sneeze, the rest of the world catches a cold, or worse, pneumonia.
How is the crisis being transmitted to Caricom? In the space of a couple of months and with breathtaking speed, what began as the bursting of the private housing market bubble in the United States, has turned into a gargantuan financial crisis, credit crunch, and global recession.
How will future economic growth be affected? V, U, or L-shaped growth curve Following last week’s column, I shall discuss this week the impact of the financial crisis and credit crunch on the prospects for economic growth performance in the United States, the broader global economy, and Caricom.
From financial crisis to real economic crisisTwo issues need to be considered at this stage of the analysis of the financial crisis and credit crunch.
Assessing the G20 Summit responses: Weak diagnosis equals weak solutiaons Overriding considerations Except by pure chance, ultimately the effectiveness of the actions proposed by the G20 Summit held on November 15, 2008 would depend on the accuracy of its diagnosis of the present financial crisis and credit crunch that are engulfing the global community.
Global response to the global crisis Within hours of the US authorities realizing that their private housing bubble had burst and how severe the financial crisis and credit crunch had become, reverberations began to be felt all around the world.
An abrupt about face: From the Troubled Assets Relief Program to partial nationalization From the inception the US Treasury authorities have made it clear that the primary objective of the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) is to stabilize the US financial system and free the flow of finance to business.
At the heart of the crisis response: the US Troubled Assets Relief Program The United States is clearly at the epicentre of the global financial crisis and credit crunch.
At the epicentre of the crisis − a bursting bubble In last week’s column I put forward the thesis that, the enormity of the global financial crisis and its associated credit cr-unch could be gauged from two indicators.
How is a credit crunch different from a financial crisis? The enormity of the challenges posed by the present financial crisis and credit crunch is starkly revealed in its two most basic aspects, firstly, the enormous toll on the United States’ financial system and secondly, the unprecedented scope of the governmental responses, which have been provoked.
The financial crisis and credit crunch As promised last week, in this week’s Sunday Stabroek column I shall start a fairly extended discussion of the staggering financial crisis and worsening credit crunch facing the global economy, The epicentre of these is the United States.
EPA, sign or else: Exploding the myth of a partnership of equalsPredictably, the opening act of the increasingly sordid saga of the African Caribbean Pacific group (ACP) – European Commission (EC) – EPAs has come to a tawdry conclusion with two recent developments in relation to the Cariforum-EC, EPA.
More on the Guyana consultation on the EPA While it would be fair to say that the Guyana government held a fairly successful National Consultation on the CARIFORUM-EC, EPA, its aftermath has been much more uncertain.
EPA: Moral Hazard and the Betrayal of the Public’s Interest Perspective Put in a proper analytical frame two crucial considerations have emerged out of my column last Sunday, which continued the analysis of the Guyana Consultation on the CARIFORUM/EC, EPA and its aftermath.
The EPA: Technicality subverts democratic discourses I have already pointed out that the text of the Cariforum-EC; Partnership Agree-ment (EPA) is very long.
Guyana: Trade-in-goods only In last week’s column I had indicated that I would for the next couple of weeks be evaluating the Guyana Consultation on the Cariforum-EC, EPA held on September 5 and its aftermath.
The Guyana National Consultation on the Cariforum-EC, Economic Partnership Agreement As a participant and presenter I might have been biased, but I believe that by any reasonable standard the Guyana National Consultation on the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) held on September 5 at the National Convention Centre was a success.
Near-term prospects for the Guyana economy: The internal environment US financial intervention The recent unprecedented and spectacular intervention of the US Federal Government into that country’s financial markets is testimony to how serious the risk of financial meltdown is in the USA, and around the world.
Near-term prospects for the Guyana economy: A tale of ‘falling prices’ (Continued from last week) Recap Several persons have expressed consternation to me over the Bureau of Statistic’s data indicating an overall increase in the price level of consumer items for the second quarter of this year of only one per cent (1%).
Near-term prospects for the Guyana economy: A tale of ‘falling prices’The surging increases in food and fuel prices have produced considerable economic uncertainty worldwide.
World economic uncertainty: Cause or consequence This analysis of the recent rapid increases in global food and fuel prices along with the strong surge in bio-fuels production and their combined impact on the Guyanese economy would be incomplete without taking into account major uncertainties that have been confronting the global economy in recent times.
Necessary but dangerous: Non-tariff barriers in action in the EPA Last week I had indicated that this week’s column would illustrate the way in which non-tariff barriers are addressed in the Cariforum-EC, Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA).
Regulating or manipulating agricultural trade: The shoddy practice of non-tariff barriers A central proposition of this analysis of rapidly rising food prices globally, is that the only long-term sustainable solution to this is the reconstitution of global trade along lines that allow for comparative and competitive advantages to be the main determinants of what and which countries export food products.
The harsh reality of global agricultural trade: Artificial competitiveness and the need for safeguards Most observers would argue that, technical and natural considerations apart, the most positive development favouring the stabilisation of global food prices in the long run would be the successful conclusion of the long drawn-out process of global trade reform.