Guyana and the wider world By Dr Clive Thomas (E-mail address: firstname.lastname@example.org) One of the most hotly debated issues pertaining to the prevailing global economic crisis is whether all three of its components (financial crisis, credit crunch, and economic recession) are showing signs of tapering off, or at least not-worsening.
The global economic crisis: A tipping point in regional integration As I have tried to show in recent columns the meltdown of the CL Financial and Stanford Financial Groups has had serious damaging effects on the financial sector of most Caricom member states.
Guyana and the Wider World Next in importance to the damaging effects of the global economic crisis on Caricom’s exports of goods and services, and possibly also public and private investment flows to the region, I predict that when the information is finally forthcoming, the contagion effects of the global crisis on the region’s financial sector will be the most devastating.
Is the CL Financial Group too big to fail? Last week I had indicated that it was the stated conviction of the Trinidad and Tobago Government and its Central Bank Governor that the CL Financial Group was “too big to fail.” This belief accounts for the far-reaching bailout and rescue package afforded to the firm.
Beware of boasting At the press conference of January 30, held in Trinidad, and discussed in last week’s column, Chairman Duprey of the CL Financial Group had indicated that the credit squeeze caused by German bankers refusing the company credit was a main reason for its troubles.
CL Financial Group: Meltdown and bailoutAs promised last week, this week I begin a review of the CL Financial Group meltdown.
Guyana and the wider world Smelling the stench In recent years, individuals who have had their ears close to the ground in Caricom’s financial, accounting, business, professional, and other expert circles, could not avoid being aware of the sordid doubts and deep misgivings swirling around corporate governance at the Stanford Financial Group.
Guyana and the wider world Recap In last Sunday Stabroek I had started a discussion on what I described as the “crisis of credibility” facing actions by the government and its functionaries on economic matters.
A crisis of credibility No easy remedy Behind the sound and fury in public debates, self-serving government pronouncements, and the studied misdirections and deceptions in statements made by various economic authorities, readers should be reminded that presently we are witnessing the confused economic responses of a state, whose essential dynamic continues to be a vehicle for criminal enterprise.
Moral hazard and the Guyana regulatory meltdown Moral hazard When a sectoral regulatory authority, in this instance for the insurance sector, takes the position that regulatory intervention as prescribed by law would be prejudicial to a party that is involved in regulatory evasion and abuse, because such intervention “would have precipitated the demise of the company to the immediate detriment of policy holders,” it means one of two ghastly things, both of which reveal a deeply flawed legal-regulatory-institutional oversight framework.
Recession proof! The grimness of the global economic environment is so intense that those who shout “make-believe” economics will sooner, rather than later as the saying goes: “have to eat their words.” Last week, (SN February 22) I expressed incredulity that the 2009 National Budget could be so much in the land of “make-believe” as to predict (target) a rate of growth of real GDP for this year at 4.7 per cent.
Budget 2009: From ‘voodoo’ to ‘make-believe’ economics ‘Voodoo economics’ Economics is essentially a discipline based on commonsensical principles and ideas.
Taking their toll: external shocks and the Guyana economyIn last week’s column I had introduced the first of eleven economic shocks/challenges that rocked the Guyana economy in the second half of 2008.
The worst-case scenario: Economic shocks in the 2nd half of 2008Recap In last week’s column I considered three major economic shocks/challenges which rocked Guyana’s economy during the first half of 2008.
Economic challenges in the first half of 2008: Rising food, fuel prices and the bio-fuels bubble In this week’s column I shall begin a review of Guyana’s economic performance during 2008, principally through evaluating the impact of three major shocks and economic challenges which rocked the economy during the first half of that year.
2008: Shocks to the Guyana economy and its prospects for 2009 Shifting gears This week I am shifting gears and stating a new discussion on the performance of the Guyana economy during 2008 and its prospects for the year ahead.
What will happen to the region’s economy? In the space of a few months the bursting of the private housing market bubble in the United States has produced a world-wide credit crunch, financial crisis and economic recession, all of staggering proportions.
How are the global economic reverses channelled to Caricom economies? Catching cold! As the saying goes: when the rich developed economies sneeze, the rest of the world catches a cold, or worse, pneumonia.
How is the crisis being transmitted to Caricom? In the space of a couple of months and with breathtaking speed, what began as the bursting of the private housing market bubble in the United States, has turned into a gargantuan financial crisis, credit crunch, and global recession.
How will future economic growth be affected? V, U, or L-shaped growth curve Following last week’s column, I shall discuss this week the impact of the financial crisis and credit crunch on the prospects for economic growth performance in the United States, the broader global economy, and Caricom.
From financial crisis to real economic crisisTwo issues need to be considered at this stage of the analysis of the financial crisis and credit crunch.
Assessing the G20 Summit responses: Weak diagnosis equals weak solutiaons Overriding considerations Except by pure chance, ultimately the effectiveness of the actions proposed by the G20 Summit held on November 15, 2008 would depend on the accuracy of its diagnosis of the present financial crisis and credit crunch that are engulfing the global community.
Global response to the global crisis Within hours of the US authorities realizing that their private housing bubble had burst and how severe the financial crisis and credit crunch had become, reverberations began to be felt all around the world.
An abrupt about face: From the Troubled Assets Relief Program to partial nationalization From the inception the US Treasury authorities have made it clear that the primary objective of the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) is to stabilize the US financial system and free the flow of finance to business.
At the heart of the crisis response: the US Troubled Assets Relief Program The United States is clearly at the epicentre of the global financial crisis and credit crunch.