Guyana: Oil and its fiscal break-even price

Introduction In this ongoing series discussion of Guyana’s prospect during its coming time of oil and gas production and export (that is circa 2025), I had introduced in last week’s column the notion of the break-even price.

Guyana and Indicative Crude Oil Price circa 2025

Introduction: Cost-Price Relation Two weeks ago (October 23), this column had introduced as part of the continuing discussion of “Guyana in the coming time of oil and gas production and export”, the notion of the “cost-price relation” that could emerge after production starts.

Guyana’s proposed national log export policy

Introduction Today’s column concludes my discussion of Guyana’s extractive forest sub-sector. I shall return later to the issue of its governance, when I attempt a more general assessment of governance in Guyana’s extractive industries sector, as a whole.

The extractive forest sector’s production under-performance

Introduction As I have opined before, the microeconomic information supplied in last Sunday’s column, depicting employment levels within the extractive forest sub-sector, generally conforms to what might have been anticipated, given the weak, erratic, and declining economic returns exhibited by the sub-sector, when analyzed from a macroeconomic/national accounts perspective, for the decade 2006-2015.

Development imperatives for the extractive forest sub-sector

Regrettable underperformance Readers would have no doubt readily gleaned from the subject matter which was addressed in last Sunday’s column, whether it was a boon for Guyana or a regrettable loss as I had represented it, for a country of its size, vulnerability, and poverty, which was also exceptionally well endowed with forest resources, to be seemingly boastful of its historically comparative low deforestation rate.

The forest structure operations behind Guyana’s low deforestation rate

On-going series The recent media release by ExxonMobil to the effect that the findings of its second offshore well (Liza 2) appear to confirm the substantial size of Guyana’s potential oil and gas reserve, presents me with a welcome opportunity to remind readers that my recent columns on Guyana’s extractive forest sub-sector are directly linked to an ongoing series dedicated to evaluate Guyana’s future as an intensive natural resources extraction-dependent economy, in the coming time of large-scale oil and gas production and export.

More on the relationship of Guyana’s economic growth and deforestation

Economic growth and net forest loss This week’s column continues with the exploration of the relationship between, on the one hand, Guyana’s population and real national income growth, and, on the other, its rate of net forest loss/deforestation, over similar long-term periods, (that is roughly from the early 1960s to the early 2000s).

Is the global community driving the agenda for Guyana’s forests?

Although in my ongoing presentation of these articles on Guyana’s forests it has not been so far singled out for attention, it should be clear from last week’s contribution that the international forest agenda is directly driving much of the agenda items framing Guyana’s forests and land use policies, as the country goes forward.

The IDB’s bullish take on bauxite in Guyana and Caricom

Introduction Last week I had indicated today’s column would continue to discuss potential pitfalls arising from Guyana’s heavy dependence on extractive export industries, and the likely deepening of this dependence in the coming time of oil and gas production and export.

The Wales situation

Introduction: one-off As I have done over the past several years, I had intended, some time much later in the year, to devote a few columns to an update on the state of Guyana’s sugar industry.