Introduction Last week’s column provided additional data on the first of four features of Guyana’s recent oil and gas discovery; that is, its physical/geological configuration.
Introduction Today’s column is primarily aimed at amplifying those references, which were made last week to the dynamic features of Guyana’s ‘potentially massive’ oil and natural gas discovery.
In today’s column I introduce the second topic in the series appraising Guyana’s economy in the coming time of oil and gas production and export.
Introduction Based on the medium and long-term outlook of the world’s energy market, today’s column introduces two further policy lessons to guide Guyana’s planning for future oil and gas production and export.
The question I respond to in today’s column is: Does the prevailing world energy outlook offer useful policy lessons for Guyana’s benefit, in anticipation of its oil and gas production coming on stream in the early 2020s?
Introduction Last’s week column identified several key trends on the demand side of the global energy market.
Introduction Today I begin to address the third and final sub-sector in this long-running series of columns on the extractive industries sector of Guyana.
Introduction Today’s column concludes my discussion of Guyana’s extractive forest sub-sector. I shall return later to the issue of its governance, when I attempt a more general assessment of governance in Guyana’s extractive industries sector, as a whole.
Introduction Today’s column comes at the point where I am left only to discuss the export performance of the extractive forest sub-sector over the last decade (2006-2015).
Introduction Today’s column closes the discussion we are having on production of timber and non-timber products in Guyana’s extractive forest sector over the past decade (2006-2015).
Introduction As I have opined before, the microeconomic information supplied in last Sunday’s column, depicting employment levels within the extractive forest sub-sector, generally conforms to what might have been anticipated, given the weak, erratic, and declining economic returns exhibited by the sub-sector, when analyzed from a macroeconomic/national accounts perspective, for the decade 2006-2015.
Introduction Today’s column focuses on economic data for the forest sector, other than those derived from Guyana’s National Accounts, which have been already introduced.
Regrettable underperformance Readers would have no doubt readily gleaned from the subject matter which was addressed in last Sunday’s column, whether it was a boon for Guyana or a regrettable loss as I had represented it, for a country of its size, vulnerability, and poverty, which was also exceptionally well endowed with forest resources, to be seemingly boastful of its historically comparative low deforestation rate.
Introduction My recent columns have argued that, despite a relatively rich forest resource endowment, and relatedly a very high standing in the world of forests, Guyana has had historically one of the world’s lowest deforestation rates.
Dilemma Last week’s column revealed what is perhaps a crucial dilemma facing Guyana’s forests.
On-going series The recent media release by ExxonMobil to the effect that the findings of its second offshore well (Liza 2) appear to confirm the substantial size of Guyana’s potential oil and gas reserve, presents me with a welcome opportunity to remind readers that my recent columns on Guyana’s extractive forest sub-sector are directly linked to an ongoing series dedicated to evaluate Guyana’s future as an intensive natural resources extraction-dependent economy, in the coming time of large-scale oil and gas production and export.
Erratic Last week’s column highlighted what I consider to be a most distinctive feature of the extractive forest sub-sector’s performance in Guyana’s economy, during the past decade.
Introduction At present, several prominent geographers and forest analysts give strong support to the forest transition hypothesis, which I have been evaluating in recent weeks.
Hypothesized relationship A pressing question that arises from last week’s brief introduction to the forest transition hypothesis is whether it offers useful guidance as regards future trends in Guyana’s extractive forest sector.
Introduction Today’s column reflects on a well-known hypothesis (forest transition theory), developed in research on the dynamics of forests in human societies.
Economic growth and net forest loss This week’s column continues with the exploration of the relationship between, on the one hand, Guyana’s population and real national income growth, and, on the other, its rate of net forest loss/deforestation, over similar long-term periods, (that is roughly from the early 1960s to the early 2000s).
Introduction Last week’s column identified ten leading considerations which are responsible for the high standing of Guyana in the world of forests.
Introduction Last week I indicated that, for a small nation, Guyana has exhibited exemplary ambition in the development of its responses to worldwide environmental challenges, in the face of global warming and climate change.
Resolute action Between Earth Day 2016 and Earth Day 2017, 55 national instruments of ratification will have to be submitted to the Paris Agreement before it comes into operation.
Earth Day 2016 Signing ceremony As indicated last week, Guyana, together with 174 other nations, have all reportedly signed on to the Paris Agreement, finally negotiated last December (2015).
The “price of carbon” proxy Last week’s column introduced estimates of the carbon stock in Guyana’s forests.
McKinsey Report: LCDS Last week’s column addressed aspects of Guyana’s “high forest cover – low deforestation status”.
The MDGs and the Forest agenda Last week’s column addressed the burning question: “Is the global community driving the domestic agenda for Guyana’s forests?” My response to that was in the affirmative.
Although in my ongoing presentation of these articles on Guyana’s forests it has not been so far singled out for attention, it should be clear from last week’s contribution that the international forest agenda is directly driving much of the agenda items framing Guyana’s forests and land use policies, as the country goes forward.
Method March 21 was International Day of the Forest, 2016. Its thematic focus was “to shine a spotlight on the connections between forests, water systems, and sustainable development”.
Today’s column concludes the ongoing presentation of background information on the global forest environment.
Introduction As indicated, the coming presentations on the forest sub-sector (a strategic segment of the non-mineral extractive sector) utilize the FAO’s definition of the forest.
Forest definition As pointed out last week, today’s column starts an assessment of Guyana’s non-mineral extractive sector.
Introduction Last week I had indicated today’s column would continue to discuss potential pitfalls arising from Guyana’s heavy dependence on extractive export industries, and the likely deepening of this dependence in the coming time of oil and gas production and export.
Shifting perceptions/reality This week’s column and the next will wrap up this somewhat extended discussion I have been having on Guyana’s dependence on the export of minerals.
Bauxite trends As promised, this week I resume discussion of the bauxite industry in the context of Guyana’s extractive mineral resources export dependence.
Introduction: one-off As I have done over the past several years, I had intended, some time much later in the year, to devote a few columns to an update on the state of Guyana’s sugar industry.
Introduction Last week’s column provided information for readers seeking a basic appreciation of the role the gold industry (Guyana’s leading mineral sub-sector), plays when assessing the pitfalls posed by its dependence on extractive industries.
Introduction Today’s column continues the discussion of Guyana’s mineral resources extractive dependence. The focus is on the gold industry.
Introduction In order to contextualize the analysis of the opportunities and pitfalls of Guyana’s mineral resources extraction dependence, this week’s column introduces further economic information on the overall performance of the sector.
Introduction As indicated last week, today’s column continues the discussion of risks and pitfalls facing mineral resources extraction in Guyana.
Introduction Having completed discussion of the appropriateness of GDP as a measure of Guyana’s economic size, progress, and national/individual well-being/welfare, I turn now to a broader assessment of Guyana’s development at this particular conjuncture.
Introduction Following last week’s description of the World Economic Forum’s (WEF), annual Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), today’s column focuses on Guyana’s results.
Introduction Last week I offered the view that for the foreseeable future, the GDP will continue as the premier measure worldwide, and in Guyana, of economic size and progress, as well as national and individual welfare/well-being.
The two preceding columns have presented, firstly, the case made by analysts who believe that, despite its limitations, the GDP remains the most appropriate indicator of economic size, rate of progress and level of welfare or well-being enjoyed by Guyanese.
Introduction Last week’s column responded to the question: Is Guyana’s GDP an appropriate measure of its economic size, progress or well-being?
Introduction Thus far, my reflections on Guyana’s economic statistics have centred on its national accounts, and in particular the GDP.
Introduction Presently Guyana’s national accounts are compiled relative to the base year 2006.
Introduction Let me admit upfront, I agree entirely with Ramesh Gampat’s headline statement as reported in his SN letter of October 26, 2015: `While Guyana’s data is too weak to be subjected to rigorous analysis it allows for broad trends’.
Guyana’s most basic and fundamental economic statistics are its national accounts. However, most readers are probably not aware that, the very first effort at their construction was undertaken by Dr.