Bolivia’s Morales eyes deeper reforms after vote

LA PAZ – Bolivian President Evo Morales  looks set to win re-election easily on Dec. 6, allowing him to  deepen leftist economic reforms as a fractured opposition  struggles to dent his popularity.

Opinion polls show Morales with more than 50 per cent support and a 30-point lead, suggesting he will cruise to a second term in the election and likely gain control of Congress in the Andean country, the poorest in South America.

Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president and a close  ally of Venezuela’s fiery socialist leader Hugo Chávez, says he  needs more time to redistribute profits from the key natural  gas industry among the poor.

“I think I can achieve a huge triumph on Dec. 6, not a  triumph for Evo Morales … but for you, brothers and sisters,”  the former coca farmer said at a campaign rally earlier this  month, using the kind of simple language that has cemented his  popularity among Bolivia’s Indian majority.

Months after taking office in 2006, Morales rattled foreign  investors by nationalizing the country’s vast natural gas  fields — a key source of energy for neighboring Brazil and by  far Bolivia’s biggest export earner.

Morales, who hails from a poor Aymara Indian family and  shuns suits and ties, also took over mining and  telecommunication firms, pleasing his Indian support base but  irking many middle-class Bolivians, who say he is too radical.

His priorities for a second term look set to include  launching state cement, dairy, drug and paper companies,  investing in natural gas processing plants and hydroelectric  dams and developing Bolivia’s huge lithium reserves.

“Winning with a huge majority … is a great opportunity  but there are lots of challenges that remain and lots of  challenges that will arrive,” said Kathryn Ledebur, head of the  Bolivia-based Andean Information Network think-tank.

Among the challenges that Morales could face are corruption  in state-controlled companies, demands from supporters eager  for a larger share of state revenues and protests in regions  governed by the opposition where Morales is unpopular.

Polls suggest opposition candidates are likely to suffer a  crushing defeat, partly because they failed to rally behind a  single presidential candidate, political analysts say.

The leading opposition contender, former army captain  Manfred Reyes Villa, is trying to win support from the middle  class by accusing Morales of having totalitarian ambitions. “There’s already a sort of dictatorship,” Reyes Villa told  Reuters earlier this month. “So imagine if he had a majority  (in Congress) — that would be the end for democracy.”

During his first term, Morales issued dozens of  presidential decrees to bypass Congress, because he said the  opposition-controlled Senate was systematically blocking  government-proposed bills.

A new constitution approved in January calls for Congress  to pass a set of key electoral and judicial laws within the  first half of 2010.

If Morales’ Movement Toward Socialism party wins a solid  majority in Congress, it would be able to set the tone of these  laws to help him cement his power. If it wins two-thirds of the  seats, it would be able to pick candidates for high courts.

Such a possibility worries wealthy Bolivians and the  business elite based in the eastern city of Santa Cruz, the  country’s economic powerhouse and an opposition stronghold.

“There is certainly middle-class concern about a  consolidation of power but I don’t think it’s enough for people  to want to turn back,” said Jim Shultz, head of the Democracy  Center think-tank.

Fierce opposition in provinces such as Santa Cruz plagued  Morales’ constitutional reform push and he could continue to  face a stiff challenge from rightist regional leaders.

At least 10 people were killed last year when  anti-government protesters ransacked public buildings and  attacked natural gas pipelines in opposition-led regions.

But Morales’ foes may have to find new ways to challenge  him.

“They tried violence. That was a popular groundswell of  protests but it didn’t work,” Ledebur said. “They have probably  realized that violence is not the way.”