Remaining Google units exposed to angry Beijing

HONG KONG, (Reuters) – Google’s gambit in pulling  the plug on its flagship search engine in China leaves its  remaining operations there exposed to the whimsy of Beijing,  whose initial reaction is far from reassuring.

Google plans to maintain an advertising sales force as well  as its large research and development operations in China, but  risks losing market share, revenue and staff to rivals  including market leader Baidu, up-and-comer Tencent and U.S.  heavyweight Microsoft.

Opportunities to develop and market its Android and Chrome  operating systems for cellphones and PCs in China could also be  threatened, a potential setback for partners such as handset  makers Dell and Lenovo.

“There’s no doubt the Chinese might make life difficult for  Google,” said Vivek Couto, an analyst at Media Partners Asia.  “But they don’t want to go directly after them. China also has  to be a bit cautious.”

Google’s decision to shut its mainland Chinese-language  portal and reroute searches to its Hong Kong-based site to  avoid the self-censorship Beijing demands was seen more as an  escalation than a compromise in the two-month old dispute.

Though tensions could ease after an initial round of  finger-pointing, the uncertainty and need for Beijing’s  tolerance, if not support, threaten Google’s prospects in the  world’s largest Internet market.

Initial indications that Google’s gambit was getting a  chilly reception came from the official Xinhua news agency,  which cited an unnamed official calling the move “totally  wrong” and in violation of Google’s written promises.

In direct terms, Google may have to give up some or all of  its revenue derived from China’s search market, depending on  whether its advertisers follow it to its redirected China site  at google.com.hk.

Analyst estimates of Google’s annual revenue in China  range from $300 million to roughly $600 million, a small  portion of its $24 billion in annual revenue.

Other stakeholders exposed to Google’s actions include  cellphone makers like Dell and Lenovo, which are both  developing Android-based phones for China, as well as the  hundreds of people who independently sell ads and develop  software for Google’s products.

Spokeswomen at Lenovo and China Mobile, which is planning  to offer the Dell Android phones on its network, had no  immediate comment.

Meantime, other search sites operators stand ready to  benefit most form Google’s withdrawal, most notably Baidu —  which has 60 percent of China’s search market — and others  such as fast-growing Tencent, analysts said.