Arab rebellions puncture Qaeda propaganda

Protesters take part in an anti-Mubarak protest at Tahrir square in Cairo, February 1, 2011. REUTERS/Suhaib Salem

LONDON, (Reuters) – Revolts in Egypt and Tunisia have  struck a blow against al Qaeda’s call to violence as a means of  overthrowing autocratic governments, showing “people power” to  be a more effective weapon.

Protesters take part in an anti-Mubarak protest at Tahrir square in Cairo, February 1, 2011. REUTERS/Suhaib Salem

The adaptable militant group, with strong roots in Egypt,  will work hard to exploit any sense of disappointment if the  eventual outcome of the uprising there does not deliver better  lives for the Arab world’s most populous country, analysts say.

But for now the group has no easy answer to the evidence  presented by the world’s television screens — that ordinary men  and women are doing more to weaken the 30-year-old rule of  President Hosni Mubarak than years of attacks by armed groups.

Nor is there much comfort here for Western strategists who  have argued that the West must prop up Arab autocrats or see the  region taken over by violent anti-Western Islamist radicals.

“It’s a huge defeat for al Qaeda in a country of central  importance to its image.

It has wounded their credibility with  potential supporters,” said Noman Benotman, a former organiser  for an al Qaeda-aligned group in neighbouring Libya.

“These demonstrations by ordinary people show the bankruptcy  of al Qaeda’s ideology,” said Peter Knoope, Director of the  International Centre for Counter-Terrorism in The Hague.


DESPERATE

He said the December suicide of Tunisian stallholder Mohamed  Bouazizi — a protest against the lack of economic opportunity  that helped trigger Tunisia’s revolt — proved more powerful  than al Qaeda’s call for attacks on Western-backed Arab rulers.

“The mobilisation of the masses was brought about by the  authentic suicide of someone who was desperate,” he said.

Al Qaeda’s regional arm, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,  issued a statement praising the Tunisian uprising and calling on  youths to join its Algerian bases for training.

But many al Qaeda sympathisers have been waiting to hear  from the leadership, Osama bin Laden and his Egyptian deputy  Ayman al-Zawahri, who are believed to be based in Pakistan.

So far, there has been silence.

That is a “not very impressive” delay by the group’s  ideological chiefs, according to Anna Murison, an expert on  Islamist armed groups at London’s Exclusive Analysis.

She said a recent web posting by pro-al Qaeda Mauritanian  cleric Abu al-Mandhar al-Shanqiti might give a flavour of what  al Qaeda’s core leadership would say.

“If there are any mujahideen (holy warriors) in Egypt, it is  the best form of jihad to participate in this blessed  revolution,” she quoted the message as saying.
Shanqiti added he would “not see any problem” if protesters  also engaged in suicide attacks, Murison said.

“The argument is likely to be that the masses have finally  woken up to what al Qaeda has been saying for the past 20  years,” she said, but added that such “opportunistic” rhetoric  was unlikely to play well with the crowds in central Cairo.

Al Qaeda has deep roots in Egypt, through al-Zawahri, who  led a failed campaign in the mid-1990s to set up a purist  Islamic state in Egypt, and through many key operatives.

These include Mohamed Atta, a hijacker-pilot of the Sept.  11, 2001, suicide attacks on the United States, and Saif  al-Adel, a former military commander of al Qaeda recently freed  from house arrest in Iran and now believed to be in Pakistan.

OPPORTUNITIES ALSO SEEN

Despite the ideological setback, the uprisings may present  al Qaeda with some temporary tactical openings, analysts say.
Political flux and an atmosphere of freer expression, may  provide the group with valuable openings over the next few  months to rebuild long-absent networks, said Benotman.

Egypt has suffered sporadic attacks in the last decade such  as deadly bombings of tourist resorts between 2004 and 2006, but  has avoided any return to the sustained violence of the 1990s. “There’s going to be a window of opportunity to slip back  into the country, to step up communications with each other,”  Murison said, adding that prison breaks in both countries this  month showed security services appeared to be under strain.

Above all, al Qaeda would see opportunities if Mubarak was  able to cling to power or was succeeded by a government that  closely resembled the outgoing one, said Sajjan Gohel, of the  Asia-Pacific Foundation security research body.

“The best thing for al Qaeda would be for this uprising to  raise, and then dash, popular expectations,” said Jarret  Brachman, a U.S. counter-terrorism specialist and author.