Defections test Assad’s ability to sustain crackdown

Bashar al-Assad

AMMAN, (Reuters) – Cracks in Syria’s military are  widening along sectarian lines, say analysts, fuelling an armed  mutiny that may pose an even greater threat to President Bashar  al-Assad than the street protests which have rocked the country  for months.

Bashar al-Assad

Diplomats and military experts say army cohesiveness is  fraying and defections increasing as the leadership, largely  from the minority Alawite sect, sends troops out to crush unrest  across the mainly Sunni Muslim country of 20 million.

“The crackdown is looking increasingly unsustainable. Assad  is more unable to rely on the majority Sunni rank and file. It  is costing lots of money to move already exhausted core troops  and his capability of launching simultaneous strikes on protest  centres is diminishing,” a European diplomat said.

“The Sunni backlash against him is growing, and we could see  a scenario where he will lose the countryside.”

The ruling elite faces a nascent armed insurgency emboldened  by the overthrow and killing of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi,  opposition sources say.

Defectors from the military have in recent weeks launched  more deadly guerrilla raids on convoys and fortifications in the  province of Idlib near the border with Turkey, and along the  main Damascus-Aleppo highway in Hama and Homs to the south.

“TERRORISTS”

Dozens of soldiers have been killed in Homs, Hama and Idlib,  opposition sources say. Authorities say “armed terrorist groups”  have killed 1,100 soldiers and police since the uprising broke  out in March.

Unlike Libya’s successful rebels, defectors from Syria’s  military lack international support. A protracted conflict, with  Assad holding on to main cities such as Damascus and Aleppo  while opponents challenge his control of smaller cities and  rural regions bordering Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon.

Core troops from Assad’s Alawite sect, mainly assigned to  the best-equipped Republican Guards and the Fourth Armoured  Brigade, show no sign of abandoning Assad.
They are backed by Alawite-dominated Military Intelligence  and Air Force Intelligence, two units in charge of preventing  dissent within the military as it presses on with a crackdown  which the United Nations says has killed 3,000 people.

A repeated tactic of security forces is to deploy Sunni  conscripts in rings around cities and towns, under the scrutiny  of Alawite intelligence agents. Hundreds have been killed for  refusing to obey orders, anti-Assad activists say.

The military is effectively commanded by Assad’s younger   brother Maher and their brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, who  diplomats say has been given enhanced responsibilities in  leading the repression of protests.

Defectors from the military are helping defend Sunni  neighbourhoods coming under assault by the military and a  pro-Assad militia in the central city of Homs, 140 km (85 miles)  north of Damascus.

Ali bin Abi Taleb brigade, a defector unit named after the  cousin of the Prophet Mohammad, is operating in the Homs  countryside, residents said. Another brigade, Khaled bin  al-Walid, fought Assad’s forces for 10 days before withdrawing  from the town of Rastan.

Rebel sources said 100 defectors and insurgents were killed  in the battle for Rastan, with loyalist forces sustaining heavy  losses. Authorities said seven security police were killed.

 NO “TIPPING POINT” YET

In that battle, Captain Abdelrahman al-Sheikh emerged as a  leading figure among defectors.

“He proved to be astute on the battlefield.

The (other, more  senior) defectors in Turkey are playing little role,” said an  opposition source.

“The problem is that they lack more effective weapons, such  as shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles. And that international  support is needed to move the large amounts of cash needed to  buy weapons and support them,” the source said.

W. Andrew Terrill, professor at the U.S. Army War College,  said insurgents were small in number but could inflict serious  casualties because the Syrian army is structured to fight Israel  and control Lebanon, not deal with guerrillas and urban warfare.

“Right now (armed rebels) seem to be mostly fighting  defensively against regime forces entering areas sympathetic to  the rebels. The trend seems to be towards more defections from  the army and more confrontations between defectors and  soldiers,” he said.

“Trends can be reversed, and we are still not at a tipping  point, but things are definitely worse for Assad.”

Terrill said that if controlling Syria eventually looked  “hopeless” for Assad and his supporters, they might consider  retreating to Alawite regions around the city of Latakia.

“Ceding territory to the rebels means that they (the rebels)  could set up something like Libya’s Transitional National  Government and request foreign recognition and aid,” he said.

Major General Moussa Hadid, a former Jordanian army  strategist, said Syria’s military command had intensified  censorship and cut holidays to try to prevent Sunni conscripts  from finding out about the extent of killings by the security  forces in their home regions.

“They send conscripts from the south to the north and vice  versa. Despite all the controls over the senior officers and  army and soldiers a lot of them are now becoming more  distrustful of the regime and are awaiting the opportunity to  support the uprising,” Moussa said.