The latest figures on tourism should not be a reason to relax

Over the last several months there have been a number of reports that suggest that the Caribbean tourism economy is beginning to turn around. They indicate that the sector is starting to see its first real growth since the crisis years of 2007-8, and that hotels may be moving into profit and taking on new employees. If this is so it is indeed good news, but as those in the industry suggest, such information requires treating with caution.
Media optimism about tourism’s prospects principally stemmed from a press statement promoting the 2012 edition of Caribbean Trends in the Hotel Industry, a report for sale to professionals and investors, produced by PKF Hospitality, a US based consultancy and real estate firm.

Their release stated that the average Caribbean hotel that participated in its survey, experienced a 10 per cent increase in net operating income in 2011, the greatest annual increase in profits since 2008. According to the company, the survey also showed that last year was the first since the recession when the Caribbean hotel industry had posted a positive annual growth in occupancy (up 1.0 per cent), an increase in average daily rate (up by 5.6 per cent), and as a consequence, an increase in revenue per available room up by 6.7 per cent.

Less technical, but also based on a self-selecting sample of hotels, was another report produced by Trip Advisor which looked at global trends in the tourism industry. This reported that twenty per cent of