Most polls show that Venezuela’s government candidate Nicolás Maduro is likely to win today’s elections thanks to an unfair election process in which the government controls an overwhelming share of TV time, but — even if he wins — Maduro’s future is gloomy.
If most polls are right and Maduro wins despite a significant narrowing of his advantage over opposition candidate Henrique Capriles in recent days, a lot will depend on his margin of victory, and on whether Capriles concedes as readily as he and other opposition leaders have done in the past. It may not happen quite that way this time.
Judging from what I’m told by well-placed Venezuelans, there are five major scenarios of what may
