The recent IMF-Guyana Article IV Consultation

The press release on the Article IV consultation between Guyana and the IMF raised several important points, some of which dovetails nicely with the theme of unity and human development. Of course, the government press and the Guyana Times – engineered through oligarchic manoeuvring – emphasized the favourable macroeconomic figures referenced by the IMF. If we assume the GDP data are credible (I take it with a heavy dose of scepticism), the Guyana economy is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2013 after recording a similar rate for 2012. If true it represents a respectable rate of growth, although based on two volatile foundations.

First, the rice market in Venezuela is hanging on the string of a left-wing alliance between the Marxist-Leninist PPP (according to the party’s constitution) and President Maduro of Venezuela. Second, the price of gold has declined significantly in 2013 and we should expect it to fall further in 2014 as the Federal Reserve