Recently several letter writers have questioned the veracity of Guyana’s GDP statistics, including the rate of growth of GDP. We have here a classic case of asymmetry of information. The Bureau of Statistics knows more than the public about the sources of the data, aggregating methods, and the sector weights chosen to calculate Guyana’s GDP. As public servants, the statisticians could do the nation a great service if they explain clearly how they arrive at a particularly sensitive data point such as the inflation rate or GDP growth rate. The Bureau has the inside information and therefore should not expect the burden of proof to fall on the public. It is also important that political aspirants lift up the quality of public discourse when questioning the data.
Responding to a letter co-authored by several writers, the Chief Statistician Mr Lennox Benjamin argues that anyone challenging the GDP statistics has to take into consideration the growth of individual sectors of the economy. He is right. However, there are still unanswered questions regarding the growth of various sub-sectors and their relative weight in computing the final growth rate. A few issues have to be cleared up if the present debate is to move from heat to light. First, the Bureau of Statistics uses mainly the production method when calculating GDP, which is structured according to the following core sectors: (i) agriculture, fishing and forestry; (ii) mining and quarrying; (iii) manufacturing; and (iv) services. The Bureau uses the expenditure method to calculate
